The introduction this week was guest authored by Les Miles:
Brian’s want for Kentucky to be be able to be on the side of victory has put a hindrance on his want and ability to be able to, to the best of his abilities, choose a score based upon the past reflections and analyses befitting of a favorable outcome on a weekly basis. I think that it is my belief that his overall record for the season, as a whole, does not reflect his want to correctly pick those games that would put his record in the best light because of his choosing of Kentucky in many different circumstances so far during this season of football.
Last Week:
South Carolina 31, Tennessee 13 [Actual Score: 38 – 24 S Carolina]
Georgia 24, Florida 19 [Actual Score: 34-31 Florida] X
auburn 35, Ole Miss 26 [Actual Score: 51-31 auburn]
Kentucky 28, Miss State 25 [Actual Score: 24-17 Miss State] X
Arkansas 35, Vanderbilt 14 [Actual Score: 49-14 Arkansas]
Week: 3-2
Season: 48-19 (72%)
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Florida at Vanderbilt, 11:21a CDT, SEC Network
This ought to be a gem…
I can’t even believe this is televised, but looking at some of the other SEC opponents (Idaho St, Charleston St, UT-Chattanooga), I can understand it being on TV.
Florida (supposedly) fixed some problems during the bye week and came out guns a ‘blazing last week against Georgia. The Gators should be able to sleep walk through this game as Vandy seems to be getting worse.
Vanderbilt could probably run the ball a little bit against Florida and will probably have some success early in the game. But once they get in a hole, they’ll need to pass and can’t. The ARKANSAS defense limited QB Larry Smith to less than 40 yards passing last week. I can’t imagine those aggressive Gator DBs allowing MORE than that.
The biggest issue in this game for Florida is finishing without injuries. RB Chris Rainey is back from suspension and healthy and should provide some flash down the stretch for the Gator offense.
I’m going to go out on a limb here and say that QB John Brantley throws his first TD pass in over a month. Meanwhile, freshman jackknife, Trey Burton will continue to make his case why he should be the starting QB next year as he is putting together an impressive freshman season.
With the biggest game in the SEC East coming up next weekend (S Carolina @ Florida) I can see Florida getting that lead early and resting their key players.
THE PICK: Florida 45, Vanderbilt 9
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Idaho State at Georgia, 11:30a CDT, ESPN3
Out of 117 FCS teams, Idaho St is almost touching the bottom in both total offense and defense.
One guy to watch is junior RB Tavoy Moore (5’7, 195). He’s like their Dexter McCluster or Randall Cobb. Here is his resume:
- 38 rushes, 180 yards
- 27 receptions, 323 yards, TD
- 28 KORs, 771 yards, 2 TDs
- 13 PRs, 262 yards, 2 TDs
To put those return numbers in prospective, if Tavoy Moore were an FBS player, he’d be the 5th best KO returner based on yardage gained and the 19th best in average. For punt returns, he’d be the tied for the 6th best in return yards, and tied for 3rd best in return average. [Weird stat: Tavoy Moore has the exact same number of punt returns and yardage as Southern Cal WR Ronald Johnson. Moore has 1 more punt return for a TD. Odd.]
The top two WR targets are sophomore Roderick Rumble (6’2, 190) who has good size and has caught 24 passes for 328 yards and 2 TDs. The other is Moore.
The Bengal defense is led by two junior LBs, Basim Hudeen (5’10, 230) and AJ Storms (6’0, 215). They are both tackling machines (70 and 99, respectively). Also of note; senior DB Chris Holmsley (5’9, 193) who has 78 tackles and 2 INTs.
Georgia is coming off a tough OT loss against rival Florida. This is a tune up game for the Bulldogs as they prepare and continue to improve for their date with auburn next week.
This game should help Georgia at least prepare for kicking to Demond Washington, which would be stupid.
THE PICK: Georgia 45, Idaho State 13
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Charleston Southern at Kentucky, 11:30a CDT, ESPN3
Charleston Southern has a middle offense the FCS and one of the worst defenses. Their bread and butter is passing (16th overall in FCS), lead by senior WR Gerald Stevenson (5’10, 165). On the year he has 643 yards on 87 receptions and 4 TDs. He’s also a very dangerous KO returner, averaging 38 yards per return (12, 458 yards, 3 TDs). His average of 38 ypr would lead the FBS.
The Buccaneers have a handful of other WRs that they like to spread the ball around to and all of them have at least 20 receptions on the year and average another 300 yards between the three of them.
The defense is lead by two LBs, Chris Patrick (6’0, 218) and Fred Godfrey (5’11, 225). Patrick and Godfrey lead the team in tackles (63 and 50, respectively), are tied for the lead in TFL (7.5) and each have intercepted at least on pass.
Kentucky is coming off another tough loss to Mississipi State and could possibly win out (Vanderbilt, @Tennessee) after gaining some confidence and momentum in this game.
I would expect that Charleston Southern would be able to move the ball a little bit through the air against the Wildcat defense, but it won’t be nearly enough, as Kentucky has way too much talent for the a terrible FCS defense to defend.
THE PICK: Kentucky 42, Charleston Southern 18
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UT-Chattanooga at 2auburn, 12:00p CDT, ESPN3
Chattanooga is a pretty good FCS team with a roster littered with SEC talent, but it won’t be enough to pull the auburn upset. Alabama steamrolled the Mocs on the way to the National Championship about this time last year and auburn looks to do the same.
UTC is led by junior QB and Tennessee transfer, BJ Coleman (6’5, 220). He leads the #8 FCS offense and has a few decent playmakers around him. For the 2010 season, Coleman has completed 168/289 passes for 2,257 yards, 21 TDs and 12 INTS. For some perspective, 2,257 yards would rank 14th in the FBS and 21 TDs would be good enough for a 4th place tie. He is a legitimate QB and would be a star at Tennessee right now and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him throw the ball around a little on auburn’s secondary.
The Mocs leading WRs are junior Joel Bradford (6’0, 165) and Brian Southerland (5’10, 175). Bradford leads the FCS with 1027 receiving yards (3rd in FBS) on 66 (T4th in FBS) receptions and 7 TDs (T8th in FBS). The fact that he’s 165 lbs and he’s still putting up those numbers is crazy! He’s either ridiculous at getting open or the system he plays in allows him to be that open. By the way, Bradford has gone OFF his last two games: 15 receptions, 274 yards, TD and 11, 152, 2.
Southerland is a nice compliment to Bradford and also runs on the 4×100 relay team at UTC (how’s THAT for some research!) and has 436 yards on 33 receptions for 2 TDs.
The UTC defense is led by former Tennessee junior LB Chris Donald (6’1, 225); he plays DE for the Mocs and has 42 tackles on the season, 11 TFL (60 yards) and 7 sacks (44 yards). There aren’t many FBS that couldn’t use some production like that!
Junior Ryan Consiglio (6’1, 215) leads the team with 91 tackles and sophomore DE Joshua Williams (6’3, 230) is also very productive on the DL with 24 tackles, 6 TFL (25 yards) and 4.5 sacks (23).
The Moc secondary features freshman DB Kadeem Wise (5’10, 170) who leads the team (and the FSC) with 6 INTs and junior S Jordan Tippit (6’0, 205) has 2 INTs. For the North Alabama crowd, Jordan Tippit and South Carolina transfer, WR Jarrett Burns are from Buckhorn HS and Lee HS (respectively).
On offense, auburn should be too much for the UTC defense. Only a handful of players have seen the size and speed that auburn will put on the field. But they do have legit FBS size across the board on defense and will challenge the auburn passing game.
If the Moc line can account for Nick Fairley, BJ Coleman might be able to do some damage to the auburn secondary. The Moc RB, senior Erroll Wynn (his parent’s have a sense of humor) at 5’11, 215 has some bulk.
auburn should cruise, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Chattanooga move the ball a little bit early in the game.
THE PICK: auburn 49, Chattanooga 17
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6Alabama at 10LSU, 2:30p CDT, CBS
To say this game is huge is an understatement. And as a Bama fan, that has me nervous on 2 levels: 1) the LSU is always pretty tough, given the back stories with Coach Saban and what not. That nervousness is there every year and is nothing new. 2) Even though auburn is in the driver’s seat for the BCS NC game, I keep reading bowl projections and listening to all these talking heads that keep putting Oregon vs Alabama or Boise St vs Alabama in the NC game. Alabama isn’t quite a long shot to make the NC game, but they definitely have some work to do…yet they are still in the headlines and that is my fear. I truly hope this young team learned from earlier in the season that you cannot overlook anyone…especially a game that is 3 weeks away!
The fact that Alabama is going to travel into Death Valley and play a majority of this game while the sun is still in the sky is huge. HUGE. It will still be loud, just not drunken loud. But since the game is played on the field, I expect this one to be a pretty close one.
Alabama is coming off a great offensive 2nd half against Tennessee, although I do wonder how that translates against LSU’s defense (best in the SEC). Can the OL block a stout LSU DL? Can someone besides Julio Jones (who will probably be covered by CB guru, Patrick Peterson) get open and make some plays? Last year, Alabama went into the LSU game with similar offensive problems; even Greg McElroy was scraping the bottom of the barrel of his performance slide. The Tide came out chucking the ball all over the field and seemed to shake away their offensive woes.
LSU’s offensive problems have been viewed and discussed ad nauseum. I can’t imagine a bye week would solve those problems either. Alabama will have to account for RB Stevan Ridley. He leads the SEC in rushing (by RBs) and he will be looking to take advantage of Alabama’s run defense problems. LSU has two terrific WRs in Terrance Toliver and Ruben Randle, but as long as QB Jordan Jefferson is under Center, I can’t imagine they will be a big play threat until (unless) the game gets to crunch time.
Any game that has the probability of being a low scoring and close causes concern for me when the Hat is on the other sideline. Throw in the home field advantage and it makes me nervous. Alabama’s probably a better team but has A LOT riding on this game and I wonder if the youth shows up again Saturday afternoon.
THE PICK: Alabama 24, LSU 22
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Louisiana-Lafayette at Ole Miss, 6:00p CDT, ESPNU
The Cajuns haven’t won since October 2nd against the Mean Green of North Texas. Since then, Western Kentucky snapped their losing streak in a win over Lafayette October 23rd.
Not much D. Not much O. They do have an NFL talent at TE, Ladarius Green (25 receptions, 437 yards, 4 TDS), who is their leading receiver.
Ole Miss travels to Knoxville next week, so I would expect them to try to keep people healthy and try to work on some things.
THE PICK: Ole Miss 42, Louisiana-Lafayette 23
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18Arkansas at 19South Carolina, 6:00p CDT, ESPN
Marquee Game #2 in the SEC for Week 10. Arkansas is playing for a higher bowl and Carolina is playing to keep its SEC East hopes alive. With the game that will ultimately decide their fate coming up next week, against Florida, Carolina had best not be overlooking the Razorbacks. (Note: Carolina can still lose this game and beat Florida and still be SEC East champs…so basically, they need to beat Florida no matter what.)
Arkansas will be without super WR Greg Childs. But the rest of their collection of top end WRs will have no problem in his absence. Ryan Mallett is on a tear and must be licking his chops against Carolina’s spotty secondary, a group that only has 4 INTs on the year). And don’t sleep on RB Knile Davis, he’s really been pouring it on the last few weeks.
If this game goes into shoot out mode, I think Carolina can keep pace. Arkansas’s defense turned out to be no better than in years past. WR Alshon Jeffery can stretch the field as good as anyone and RB Marcus Lattimore has few peers running the ball, even as a freshman.
Points will be a plenty in this game (I think…last week showed I know nothing). Carolina has more to play for, but they also have a bigger game next week. That combo usually spells, TRAP.
THE PICK: Arkansas 35, S Carolina 31
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Tennessee at Memphis, 7:00p CDT
Hello pillow fight. Tennessee will remember what it feels like to win since all the way back on September 25 when an overtime bomb to the endzone clinched a victory over another middling Conference USA team, UAB.
The only people interested in this game will be Tennessee fans, wishing, hoping, praying for some momentum going into the Ole Miss game…and no more injuries.
THE PICK: Tennessee 28, Memphis 12
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