I don’t expect anyone to believe this, but the last thing I changed before I posted my picks for last week was change my winner in the Alabama – LSU game from LSU to Alabama. Got to listen to your gut feelings!! Anyway, we’ll see what happens this week.
Last Week:
Florida 45, Vanderbilt 9 [Actual Score: 55-14 Florida]
Georgia 45, Idaho State 13 [Actual Score: 55-7 Georgia]
Kentucky 42, Charleston State 18 [Actual Score: 49-21 Kentucky]
auburn 49, UT-Chattanooga 17 [Actual Score: 62-24 auburn]
Alabama 24, LSU 21 [Actual Score: 24-21 LSU] X
Ole Miss 42, Louisiana-Lafayette 23 [Actual Score: 43-21 Ole Miss]
Arkansas 35, South Carolina 31 [Actual Score: 41-20 Arkansas]
Tennessee 28, Memphis 12 [50-14 Tennessee]
Week: 7-1
Overall: 55-20 (73%)
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Ole Miss at Tennessee, 11:00a CDT, CBS
This is the toughest game to figure out of the week. Both teams are capable of putting up points. Both teams are enigmas. And both teams are running out of chances to gain bowl eligibility.
If Tyler Bray starts at quarterback for Tennessee, I actually think they have a better chance. Even though he’s a true freshman, from what I’ve seen, he gives the Vols the better chance of being successful. For some reason, the offense looks more responsive under his direction.
I feel like RB Brandon Bolden will be the key for Ole Miss, if they win this game. I could see a scenario that has him pounding the defense in the first half and then once they are tired (and their lack of depth catches up with them) Ole Miss will unleash the speedy Jeff Scott.
I’m just going to stick with the home team.
THE PICK: Tennessee 26, Ole Miss 22
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Vanderbilt at Kentucky, 11:21a CDT, SEC Network
I really can’t imagine a scenario in which Vanderbilt wins another game. Especially with RB Warren Norman out for the year; Vanderbilt is pretty much bereft of game breaking talent.
Going on the road is always tough. But going on the road to face a Kentucky team who is one win from going to a 5th consecutive bowl, might just been too much for the Commodores to overcome.
Not to mention all the weapons Kentucky has on offense. I’m not sure there is anything Vandy can do to win this one…except for maybe…purchase a ringer like another SEC team (allegedly) has done…
THE PICK: Kentucky 38, Vanderbilt 17
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Georgia at 2auburn, 2:30p CDT, CBS
See what I did there, in the paragraph above? THAT was a flawless segue!
Will or won’t auburn sit Cameron Newton? As of this writing he’s playing and I can’t imagine they would sit him anyway…after all, they are, “All In”.
But, I’m inclined to say that even if Newton sits, the outcome won’t matter. Georgia has been preparing for Newton and the game plan, might be a tad different if, say, Barrett Trotter or Neil Caudle were to line up under center…UNLESS…Kodi Burns returns to the position from whence he came and finishes the season and his auburn career as the QB. (PLEASE BE KODI BURNS, PLEASE BE KODI BURNS).
Anyway. I think the OL is real. I think the speed of the auburn RBs is real (McCalebbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbb!). I think the offensive scheme gets some WRs wide open. So with or without Newton, I’m not sure it matters offensively.
Now, auburn’s defense will have their hands full. I don’t have to say how important AJ Green will be in this game. The Georgia OL will HAVE TO keep DT Nick Fairley away from QB Aaron Murray for him to be successful enough for an upset. In just 10 games, Murray has emerged as one of the top SEC QBs and he has the ability to make things uncomfortable for the auburn defense.
Some pretty special things will have to align for this game to go in Georgia’s favor. Turnovers, taking their game to a completely different level, and of course, a higher power suggesting #2 sit.
THE PICK: auburn 44, Georgia 38
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UTEP at 15Arkansas, 6:00p CDT, ESPNU
After a brief cup of coffee in Tuscaloosa, Mike Price re-enters the SEC when he and his UTEP Miners come rolling (baby) into Fayetteville.
UTEP has a dynamic QB in Trevor Vittatoe. He has moved the ball a little bit in 2010; 2,260 passing yards and 19 TDs. And his WR, Kris Adams (6’3, 195) has caught 37 passes for 743 yards and 10 TDs, is very similar to what the Arkansas defense sees every day in practice.
UTEP will score, but this game will be a route. Arkansas has too much talent and a raucous home crowd at night.
Ryan Mallett will throw for 300+ again as the Razorbacks pad their W total for a better bowl destination.
THE PICK: Arkansas 38, UTEP 24
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Louisiana-Monroe at 5LSU, 6:00p CDT, ESPN3
I would say this game will be a blowout, but we know better. I have to imagine that ULM is better than McNeese State (who curiously gave LSU a tough game for about 2.5 quarters) so unless the Tigers have turned the corner on their odd play, this game might be a little closer than we think.
But LSU will most definitely win. Probably.
THE PICK: LSU 28, ULM 15
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23South Carolina at 22Florida, 6:15p CDT, ESPN
Well Gamecock fans, this is it. Are you as good as you think you are? One game separates you from the SEC Championship game and if there was a list of SEC teams that you would rather NOT play in order to get to Atlanta, I have to believe Florida would be first on that list: They have been there SO many times, they have a history with your coach (National Titles, a Heisman trophy) and it seems like they are putting some stuff together.
Too bad you wasted your Bye week on Alabama. THIS is where you needed it.
You got hit in the mouth at home last week by Arkansas and now you’re going to the Swamp against a team with a lot to prove; to themselves, their fans and to the nation.
Carolina needs to make sure Marcus Lattimore gets going early and stays healthy. As incredible as Alshon Jefferey is at WR, he’s not the key to this game. In the 3 games that Florida has lost (Alabama, LSU and M State) they got killed by the running game (and turnovers). For most of the season, Carolina has been as successful as Lattimore.
Florida would be the last team I’d want to play right now too, considering how they’ve really been clicking since of their Bye week. Whatever they did, they probably should have done in the summer. Carolina’s secondary is reeling right now and Florida’s ability to get their speedy guys in space that can get to the second level of the defense will be the Gamecocks undoing.
Carolina might not ever have a better chance this decade to reach Atlanta in December. But of course, it comes down to Florida.
THE PICK: Florida 31, South Carolina 18
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19Mississipi State at 12Alabama, 6:15p CDT, ESPN2
A lot has been surrounding the State program in the last few weeks. They’ve lost a teammate to cancer and they’ve unleashed the craziest football scandal, probably ever. EVAAR! And, they find themselves in November with a healthy #19 national ranking. When this 2010 season started, I said that State would be a team that you couldn’t sleep on in a year or two. Looks like they decided to do it now.
I’m not sure Alabama is physical enough to stop the run…especially on EVERY play. I thought the tackling looked improved in the 1st half last week against LSU; not sure what happened in the 2nd half. But the Tide can’t stop this week because State’s not going to stop running the ball.
Defensively, State has been solid all year. And if this game was at home, I’d be certain of an upset.
My fear is that Alabama, like in 2007 after a crushing LSU loss, won’t totally show up because their goals are unattainable. The talent is there to crush the Bulldogs. But do they want it? State does, no doubt.
RB Trent Richardson will be very limited in this game. My hope is that Mark Ingram will get enough carries to remind us that he is the reigning Heisman trophy winner. If Alabama gets mean on the OL and commits to running the football and actually opens up some lanes for Ingram, I say there is no way Alabama will lose this game.
But that remains to be seen…
Alabama will handle the surging Bulldogs. The leading receiver, Julio Jones would be the leading rusher. The leading rusher, Mark Ingram, would be the leading receiver. And Marquis Maze would have a breakout game and show the nation that he’s ready to be a star in 2011. The defense would improve and Robert Lester would revert back to early season form and intercept 2 passes.
THE PICK: Mississipi State 27, Alabama 21 Alabama 30, Mississipi St 10
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