Not that anyone cares, but I probably won’t watch a down of football this weekend on TV. I’ll be in Cullman participating in a flag football tournament with my church. I am helping coach the 9th and 10th grade team…and by coach, that also means playing. And by playing, that also means there is a 95% chance that I WILL get hurt. Anyway, I thought I would share that…
Last Week:
Tennessee 26, Ole Miss 22 [Actual Score: 52-14, T ennessee]
Kentucky 38, Vanderbilt 17 [Actual Score: 38-20, Kentucky]
auburn 44, Georgia 38 [Actual Score: 49-31, auburn]
Arkansas 38, UTEP 24 [Actual Score: 58-21, Arkansas]
LSU 28, Louisiana-Monroe 15 [Actual Score: 51-0, LSU]
Florida 31, South Carolina 18 [Actual Score: 36-14, South Carolina] X
Mississipi State 27, Alabama 21 [Actual Score: 30-10, Alabama] X
Week: 5-2
Overall: 60-22 (73%)
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Georgia State at 11Alabama, Thursday 6:30p CDT, ESPNU
I can’t imagine this game being close much longer after the opening kickoff. And I can’t imagine the starters being in the game much longer after the 1st quarter ends.
Probably a boring game if you’re not a Bama fan.
THE PICK: Alabama 38, Georgia State 6
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Troy at 17South Carolina, 12:21p CDT, SEC Network
Pretend to be interested in Troy or rest key players for the SEC Championship Game and risk an upset?
For sure, Marcus Lattimore won’t carry the ball 40 times. And that might be a problem. When he doesn’t put up big numbers, SC typically loses.
Freshman QB Corey Robinson has thrown for 2,553 yards (23rd in FBS) and 18 TDs…and 12 INTS. WR Jerel Jernigan is the leading receiver (58 receptions, 617 yards, and 4TDs) and though small (5’9, 190) he’s a pretty good target and can make plays. The Trojan offense is the 18th best in FBS rolling up 450 yards (311 passing (12th in FBS) and 154 rushing (59th)).
There’s no doubt that the Carolina players are more talented across the board, but I have to wonder how important this game is to them. I mean they COULD lose to Troy and Clemson and win the SEC Championship Game and still get a Sugar Bowl berth (What a crazy season!) So how long do we see the best Carolina players? The Gamecock offense is gaining 395 yards a game (52nd) – 251 passing (46th) and 156 rushing (56)…so not as prolific as Troy’s offense (pretending that all leagues are equal).
The Troy defense is giving up 31 points a game. Carolina scores about 30 points a game.
So here’s the deal. Carolina should probably win playing starters or not. A win here and Troy is bowl eligible and they get to add an attractive win on their resume. But Carolina goes to the same bowl no matter what happens in the regular season (provided they beat auburn in Atlanta). I would rest key people (or maybe just Lattimore) and trust my team and game plan is still better than Troy’s.
If you think about, South Carolina is “ALL IN” as well. This season has approached uncharted territory for the Carolina program. There’s no guarantee that Florida will be this down again and Georgia has vastly improved since the beginning of the 2010 season. The time is now. Rest the workhorses!
THE PICK: South Carolina 28, Troy 21
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Appalachian State at Florida, 12:30 CDT, ESPN3
The former giant killer and current FCS juggernaut will try to make it 4 loses in a row for the Gators in the Swamp.
It’s odd seeing Florida unranked. I don’t know how Appy State’s FCS success translates to FBS in 2010, but I don’t guess it would totally shock me to see this game be close. I think I would be shocked to see Florida lose.
I don’t think there’s anything to see here.
THE PICK: Florida 37, Appalachian State 18
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13Arkansas at 21 Mississipi State, 6:00p CDT ESPN
State is coming off a disappointing performance in Tuscaloosa. Maybe they were dealing with too much emotion after the death of Nick Bell. Maybe Alabama is still pretty good. I think State is a fine team that got behind early and aren’t built to play catch up.
Which probably spells trouble as Arkansas comes to town. State has been great at home (only 1 loss – a 3 pt game vs auburn) and has a good defense (allowing 15.5 points per game at home, 18 overall).
Arkansas has only been kept under 30points all year twice (vs Alabama – 20 (L) and vs Texas A&M – 24 (W)). They will score. A lot. Unless…
…State can get on the board early and then sustain long drives running the ball that keeps the Razorback offense on the sidelines – which is exactly what State does best. Key to this plan is making some stops on defense.
Even though they are at home and have a great team this year…State just isn’t made to win this kind of game.
THE PICK: Arkansas 34, Mississipi State 23
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Tennessee at Vanderbilt, 6:30p CDT, ESPN3
Tennessee may have been beating bad teams the last few weeks, but I don’t think it makes a difference to the players. Plus, all the confidence they are gaining is invaluable.
QB Tyler Bray is showing the SEC (or the 9 people outside of Knoxville watching UT football this season) why he is going to be a really good quarterback for the next few years. And WR Justin Hunter is showing the same thing. Right now, (as far as sophomores and freshman are concerned) it’s Alshon Jeffery, a big gap, Justin Hunter and everyone else, in my book.
It wouldn’t matter if the UT defense was horrible; Vandy’s not moving the ball on anyone.
This game is already over…
THE PICK: Tennessee 48, Vanderbilt 16
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Ole Miss at 5LSU, 7:00p CDT, CBS
Did You Know…that Ole Miss currently has a 2 game winning streak over LSU? That Houston Nutt has a 3 game winning streak over Les Miles? And 2 of those 3 games were in Baton Rouge. It’s true.
What does that mean going into Saturday’s game?
Other than I waste a lot of time diligently research for this blog, it means only one thing; first, let me back up some. Here are the scores of the last 5 games versus Houston Nutt and Les Miles:
2005: LSU 19, Arkansas 17 in Baton Rouge
2006: LSU 31, Arkansas 26 in Little Rock
2007: Arkansas 50, LSU 48 in Baton Rouge
2008: Ole Miss 31, LSU 13 in Baton Rouge
2009: Ole Miss 25, LSU 23 in Oxford
So what does this mean? Ole Miss has no chance. Ole Miss wants this game to be as close and sloppy as possible…except for that’s EXACTLY the kinds of games that the 2010 LSU team thrives in. So the best possible scenario for Ole Miss is also the worst case scenario for Ole Miss…no chance.
BUT, throw in the “Magical-Houston-Nutt-Wins-Games-His-Team-Should-NEVER-Win-EVAR” and zero chance to win immediately flips to CERTAIN UPSET.
I mean, that logic is as clear and plain as the philosophical gobbledy-goo that Les Miles spits out week after week.
I’m just kidding…unless Ole Miss wins.
THE PICK: LSU 33, Ole Miss 17
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