Rivalry week. I have a feeling lots of people will be missing on their predictions. Especially when your heart gets in the way of your gut when picking against teams you hate the most. Here’s how it went last week.
Alabama 38, Georgia State 6 [Actual Score: 63-7, Alabama]
South Carolina 28, Troy 21 [Actual Score: 69-24, South Carolina]
Florida 37, Appalachian State 18 [Actual Score: 48-10, Florida]
Arkansas 34, Mississipi State 23 [Actual Score: 38-31, Arkansas]
Tennessee 48, Vanderbilt 16 [Actual Score: 24-10, Tennessee]
LSU 33, Ole Miss 17 [Actual Score: 43-36, LSU]
Week: 6-0
Season: 66-22 (75%)
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2auburn at 10Alabama, Friday 1:30p CDT, CBS
We all know the story. Cameron Newton is pretty much unstoppable running the ball, especially in short yardage. We now know that he can pass a little bit too; throwing frozen ropes 40 yards down field and hitting people between the numbers. RBs Michael Dyer and Onterrio McCalebbbbbbbbbbbb are both pretty quick in the hole and able to bowl you over for tough yards (Dyer) and are devastating in space (McCalebbbbbbbbbbb). WRs Darvin Adams, Terrell Zachary and Emory Blake get open enough to catch a couple of Newton’s 15 passes and they are all pretty reliable. Throw in an experienced and very good OL and you have an offensive giant.
As far as the auburn defense: DT Nick Fairley and the LB corps. Other than that, they aren’t worth discussing.
Alabama has a nice offense of their own…although their production hasn’t lived up to the pre-season expectations. Although they want to be balanced, they tend to lean on the pass to set up the run. WR Julio Jones is exceptional. WR Marquis Maze is a blossoming star. RBs Trent Richardson and Mark Ingram are two of the best anywhere, but some niggling injuries and an OL that isn’t quite as dominant as year’s passed has led to an underwhelming running game.
Alabama’s defense is starting to jell, but still doesn’t have the same feel as the ferocious and DOMINATING Alabama defenses the last few years under Coach Saban.
Here’s the rub.
IT SEEMS that to be successful against auburn, you need a DL that can generate a pass rush and be able to play solid man defense and contain what is in front of you. First of all, Alabama hasn’t been the run-stuffing defense of old in 2010. Second of all, outside of DE Marcell Dareus, there is no pass rush. And the Alabama secondary is littered with 1st year starters besides star S Mark Barron. So that’s a problem.
For auburn to win, I think they just do what they’ve been doing. It’s been working.
For Alabama to win, I would think they employ a similar defense that was used in the SEC Championship game last year against Tebow: Get pressure, but don’t over-pursue Newton; keep him in front of you and either make him throw it, or make a sure tackle (not the kill shot).
Alabama plays a different brand of football in Bryant-Denny Stadium; they are 20-0 (the last loss was in 2007…against Louisiana-Monroe), they have allowed 1 rushing TD during that streak and have scored 43 rushing TDs.
This will be auburn’s first hostile road game (sorry, Kentucky, Ole Miss and Miss State, you aren’t hostile). That will be a factor.
Another factor will be the return game. Who makes a mistake? For auburn, Demond Washington is terrific and has already run back a few kicks for TDs this year. For Alabama, Marquis Maze is rounding into a Javy-esque weapon on kick/punt returns. Both guys are dangerous and can turn the game SO QUICK.
But what I think will be the difference is turnovers. Neither QB throws a lot of INTs (Newton – 6, McElroy – 5), but Alabama is terrific in creating them (they lead the nation with 21). Alabama has at least 1 INT in every game except for LSU.
A rockin’ Bryant-Denny Stadium and a confusing defensive scheme that I’m sure Coach Saban will have cooked up will be the difference in the 2010 Iron Bowl.
THE PICK: Alabama 37, auburn 33
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Kentucky at Tennessee, 11:21a CDT, ESPNU/ SEC Network
Tennessee has been hot lately. Now, they’ve been beating up on the Memphis’s, Ole Miss’s and the Vanderbilt’s of the world, but when you’re not very good, a win is a win and it breeds confidence. The expectations were probably about 6-6 for UT during the preseason…and then they played a few games and the expectations probably lowered a bit. But after a good second half, this is essentially a 1-game playoff for bowl eligibility. And lo and behold, it’s AT HOME against Kentucky! So this is a gimme, right?
NOPE!
If you are Kentucky, there’s not a kid in the entire program that has been alive since the last victory over Tennessee. 25 years is a loooong time. And to be able to go into Tennessee’s house and get a win would be an incredible way to end the streak! Not to mention that this is one of the worst Tennessee teams that you’ve played in a long time. Not to mention your best player, Randall Cobb, is from Knoxville’s backyard and was spurned by Volunteers.
Man the subplots are out of control in this game!!
For my money, there isn’t a better game to kick off Saturday morning football than this one. My gut says Tennessee, but my heart says Kentucky.
THE PICK: Kentucky 34, Tennessee 29
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5LSU at 12Arkansas (Little Rock), 2:30p CDT, CBS
Talk about another wacky rivalry. In the last 5 years LSU has a 3-2 edge in the series and average margin of victory has been 2.5 points. This year should be no different.
LSU rolls into Little Rock with a sound running game, a QB that is starting to actually put up some numbers and a physical defense.
Arkansas counters with a QB and WR corps that is simply scorching defenses and a running game that is also gashing people. Their defense has been good enough…for the most part.
LSU has the The Hat on their side and is grass-eating, unorthodox, and devil-may-care play calling. (Side Note: Man, you know those LSU players love playing for Les Miles. I love him and I just get to watch him on tv, I can’t imagine being around him all the time and feeding off of his brash audacity. As an Alabama fan, when he looked into America’s eye at the half of the Bama and said, “We’re right where we want to be” after getting completely dominated for a half, I was like, “Well, crap…we just lost.” I bet they would jump headfirst into hell for that man and be confident that they’d come out the other side. Just an observation.)
Arkansas has the home field advantage and a QB tailor made for Coach Petrino’s evil genius offense.
I question if Arkansas’s defense can make enough key stops. I also question which Jordan Jefferson will show up. But I don’t question Arkansas’s offense. At home.
THE PICK: Arkansas 35, LSU 24
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Florida at 22Florida State, 2:30 CDT, ABC
You have to go all the way back to 2003 to find a season where Florida State beat Florida. Most of the kids playing in this game were in 9th and 10th grade then.
Florida State is having a great first season in the post-Bobby Bowden era. They are 8-3 and lead the ACC Atlantic division.
Florida is having a subpar first season in the post-Tim Tebow era. They are 7-4 and are second in the SEC East.
And for me, the comparison stops there. I just can’t imagine an ACC school beating anyone in the SEC…even in the SEC East.
Admittedly, I don’t know much about Florida State this year. But I do know that Florida can still be a dangerous team. They’ve been tested more than Florida State and they have better players than Florida State.
I feel like Jordan Reed will have a big impact on this game for Florida…be it passing or catching or running.
I’ll look for Florida to add to their streak of 6 in a row versus the Seminoles. Although, it wouldn’t hurt my feelings one bit if Florida were to lose.
THE PICK: Florida 31, Florida State 29
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25Mississipi State at Ole Miss, 6:00p CDT, ESPNU
The Egg Bowl. I was curious why in the world this rivalry game was called the Egg Bowl, so I hopped over to Wikipedia and looked it up…
…and the reason given was too stupid to repeat here. I was going to link it, but it would be a waste of your time. Seriously.
So here we are. The battle for Mississippi.
Jeremiah Masoli versus Chris Relf = Slight advantage Masoli. Both can hurt you running. Masoli is a better passer. I didn’t know Relf had a 20/30 220 yard passing game in him (and State fans didn’t either, don’t even pretend like you did) until last week. I want to see him do that more (or even, AGAIN) before I call him a passing threat.
Brandon Bolden versus Vic Ballard = PUSH. Both are equally dangerous and are physical runners.
Ole Miss WRs versus Miss St WRs = PUSH. Neither group scares you because the QBs and RBs are too busy running.
Ole Miss defense versus Miss St defense = State. Here it is folks. This one isn’t close. The State DL is aggressive and their LBs are fast and physical and their corners are young but steady. Ole Miss has a good LB and some decent role players.
Ballgame.
THE PICK: Mississipi State 34, Ole Miss 27
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18South Carolina at Clemson, 6:00p CDT, ESPN
South Carolina has been weird team to get a feel on this year. They upset #1 Alabama and then lose to Kentucky the next week. They get mowed down by Arkansas at home, but take Florida to the woodshed in the Swamp. Now, they have a rivalry game on the road at Clemson but the week after they get a chance to avenge their last second loss to auburn AND win the school’s first SEC Championship.
Clemson’s best win of the year was a close call at home versus NC State. They too had a close loss to auburn. To be fair, all of their losses (@ auburn, Miami, @ UNC, @ Boston College and @ Florida State) were by 9 points or less and all but Miami were on the road.
I think the story for Carolina is how well does Stephan Garcia play and how to get the most production out of Marcus Lattimore with the least amount of carries.
For Clemson, how will DeQuan Bowers disrupt the pocket and affect Garcia? Can the offense make enough plays to keep you in the game?
THE PICK: South Carolina 31, Clemson 24
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Wake Forest at Vanderbilt, 6:30p CDT, ESPNU
If this was the only football game on TV Saturday, would you watch it? Or let me pose it this way: If this was the only football game on TV Saturday and you are a Vandy/Wake Forest fan, do you watch it if a basketball game is also on?
Blah!
Vandy WR Jordan Matthews will score a TD.
THE PICK: Vanderbilt 23, Wake Forest 21
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Georgia Tech at Georgia, 6:45p CDT, ESPN/ESPN2
I was thinking the other day that I haven’t heard much about Georgia Tech. I just looked at their schedule and now I know why. Not many 6-5 teams get a lot of publicity (see: Tigers, Clemson). The option attack that Tech brings to the table has got to be tough to prepare for in a week’s time. So, it’s good news for Georgia that they are coming off a Bye week.
Regardless, I think Georgia is way too much for Tech to handle this year. I know Georgia is 5-6 going into this game (that just looks weird to type that, by the way) but this offense is clicking and I really don’t think Tech can keep up (they’ve scored more than 28 points only twice this season, against South Carolina State and Duke). Georgia has scored under 28 points just four times this season; against South Carolina, Arkansas, Miss State and Colorado.
Aaron Murray is too dynamic and AJ Green is too good. Those two alone are good enough to beat Tech.
THE PICK: Georgia 35, Georgia Tech 18
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