Last Week:

Alabama 37, auburn 33 [Actual Score:  28-27, auburn] x

Kentucky 34, Tennessee 29 [Actual Score: 24-14, Tennessee] x

Arkansas 35, LSU 24 [Actual Score: 31-23 Arkansas]

Florida 31, Florida State 29 [Actual Score: 31-7, Florida State] x

Mississipi State 34, Ole Miss 27 [Actual Score: 31-23, Miss State]

South Carolina 31, Clemson 24 [Actual Score:  29-7, S Carolina]

Vanderbilt 23, Wake Forest 21 [Actual Score:  34-14, Wake Forest] x

Georgia 35, Georgia Tech 18 [Actual Score: 42-34, Georgia]

Week:   4-4

Overall Season:  70-26 (73%)

=== ==================================================== ==== ====

Alabama vs auburn

Well, if you would have told me that Alabama would get a 24-7 halftime lead, McElroy would have 330+ passing yards , the Tide defense would hold Cameron Newton to under 100 yards rushing and Alabama would still lose the game, there is no way I would believe that.  Ever.

I mean, on what planet would Greg McElroy have over 300 passing and 2 TDs in a half?

Here are the plays that KILLED Alabama:

• Trent Richardson dropped TD pass – this would have put Alabama up 28-0, instead they kick a field goal.
• The 70 yard TD pass to Terrell Zachary that Mark Barron didn’t intercept (or at least bat down) – this would have been about a 20 yard gain even if Barron and Dee Milliner just wrap him up and make the tackle.  But Barron decides to play the receiver instead of the ball…a ball that he makes a play on 9 out of 10 times.  Now, I’m not going to say that auburn wouldn’t have scored eventually if they had made the stop, because they could have, but at that point in the game, Alabama was still containing the auburn offense.

Obviously there were other plays that changed the game; plays that auburn made and plays that Alabama didn’t, but I feel like these two plays manifested how the little things can get you beat and how you HAVE TO do the little things if you want to knock out your top rival that happens to be ranked #2 in the country.

The bottom line is this:  auburn made adjustments in the second half and Alabama didn’t…unless you want to call going into Shula mode and start playing “not-to-lose”.

Alabama dictated what auburn did in the first half.  They were throwing some new looks at auburn on offense and because of the score and the way Alabama was playing, were able to make auburn play call a little differently in the first half.

The second half auburn dictated what they wanted to do on offense and made some adjustments on defense.  And that’s really the whole story.

Nick Fairley was a force and made such an impact on Alabama’s offense.  He’s going to be a rich guy next year (assuming he’s not getting paid now – Ba-Zing!).  At least Newton didn’t run rampant over the Alabama defense, but none other than Onterrio McCalebbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbb led auburn in rushing with just over 50 yards.

For Alabama, Courtney Upshaw had a whale of a game.  He’s the lynch-pin of the Alabama defense.  Basically, he was healthy two games this year (Florida and Alabama) and the defense looked like a different animal.  Hopefully in 2011, he’ll have 2 good ankles all season.  And unless something strange happens, the 2010 Iron Bowl was Julio Jones’s last home game.  What a beast.  Too bad the prevent offense ran in the 2^nd half didn’t really include him.

PLAYER WATCH

AJ McCarron – 0/4, 0 yards

CJ Mosley – 6 tackles, 1PBU

Michael Dyer – 9 rushes, 27 yards

Corey Lemonier – 1 tackle

LOOKING FORWARD

Alabama pulls for South Carolina and waits for their Bowl Game.

auburn faces South Carolina in the SEC Championship Game in Atlanta.

=== ==================================================== === ===

Kentucky @ Tennessee

Tennessee took the opening kickoff 78 yards, only to miss a 28 yard field goal.

Kentucky got on the board first with a Derrick Locke TD run and nearly made it 14-0 when Derrick Locke fumbled the ball on the 1 yard line, into the endzone, where Tennessee recovered it for a touchback.

Tennessee then drove down the field and scored on a TD pass to WR Gerald Jones.  After a shanked Kentucky punt, Tennessee scored again in 2 plays, both passes to WR Denarius Moore.

Moore had a huge day, catching 7 passes for 205  yards and became only the 2^nd Volunteer ever catch at least 200 yards in passes in two different games.  With all the great WRs that have come through Knoxville, you would think that had been done a lot, or I would have anyway.

Early in the 3^rd quarter, Kentucky QB Mike Hartline tied up the game with a short TD pass.

At the end of the 3^rd quarter Tennessee QB Tyler Bray drove the Vols down the field and RB Taruen Poole punched in a TD.  UT later added a FG.

Despite Bray throwing 2 red zone interceptions (on the 4 and in the end zone) he had a tremendous day (20/38, 354 yards, 2TDs, 2 INTs).

Kentucky left some points on the field as well.  As mentioned earlier, a fumble on the 1 would have put them up 14-0 early.  Midway through the 2^nd quarter, Randall Cobb fumbled on his own 44 yard line and on the very next play, Tyler Bray was intercepted on the Kentucky 4 yard line.  While Cobb’s fumble was essentially a 40 yard loss, Kentucky managed to drive down the field (to the UT 24 yard line) but missed a FG right before the half.

But UT threw in INT in the red zone, so sans the turnovers, this game would have still gone to the Volunteers by 7.

So the streak lives on and is now at 26 consecutive games (or years, but that sounds much worse) and with all that Kentucky loses this year (QB Mike Hartline, RB Derrick Locke, WR Chris Matthews, (presumably) ATH Randall Cobb…and that’s just offense) the streak might lengthen.

Tennessee has a lot of good young talent coming back, but they lose 2 key senior WRs in Gerald Jones and Denerius Moore.  Oh, but Justin Hunter is awesome and he’ll be back along with Da’Rick Rodgers, you Tennessee fans might say.  True, but Justin Hunter has been completely absent from a few big games (Alabama, 0 catches; S Carolina, 0 catches and Kentucky, 0 catches).  Jones and Moore have been there to pick up the slack and make sure there is a passing game (I know, I know, Hunter is just a freshman).  It will all be on Hunter and Rodgers in 2011, with the graduation of Moore, Jones and TE Luke Stocker (3 of the 4 leading receivers for UT in 2010.

PLAYER WATCH

Randall Cobb – 5 rushes, 25 yards/13 receptions, 116 yards/1 PR, -4 yards

Taylor Wyndham – 1 QBH

Justin Hunter – played; no stats

Corey Lemonier – played; no stats

LOOKING FORWARD

Both teams are bowl eligible and will await their bowl destination.

=== ========================================== === ===

LSU @ Arkansas

Wasn’t this just an exciting little game?

Both teams started out punting to each other and then missing field goals.

And then Arkansas RB Knile Davis took over on the ground (30 rushes, 152 yards and a TD).  LSU simply had no answer for him.

Ryan Mallett was also pretty ridiculous against a great pass defense (13/23, 320 yards, 3 TDs and 2INTs).  And all 3 TDs were on long pass plays.  WR Cobi Hamilton was a beast (3 receptions, 165 yards, 2 TDs), catching an 85 yard pass and an 80 yard bomb down the middle of the field 3 seconds before halftime; gutting the defense (and do the math…his over reception was for a -1 catch).  WR Joe Adams also caught at 39 yard TD pass.

As exciting as of a show that the Arkansas offense put on, the LSU offense wasn’t.  They grinded up and down the field, catching some breaks in field position by some turnovers and some great returns by Patrick Peterson.  Stevan Ridley had a typical Stevan Ridley day (17 rushes, 75 yards and a TD) which is good enough for the 3^rd best rusher in the SEC (as a RB) as he eclipsed the 1,000 yard mark in this game.

Jordan Jefferson also had a better than normal game (16/27, 184 yards) but didn’t make enough plays or put his WRs in positions to make enough plays and that’s likely the difference in the ball game.   With his corps of WRs, he should be able make a few things happen.

The better offense won this game.  But I’m still not sure who the better team is.

PLAYER WATCH

Rueben Randle – 1 reception, 5 yards

Craig Loston – 4 tackles

DJ Williams – 3 receptions, 28 yards

Ronnie Wingo – 1 reception, 3 yards

LOOKING FORWARD

Both teams are bowl eligible and will await their bowl destination.  With the victory, Arkansas likely played itself into the Sugar Bowl.  LSU will probably go to the next best bowl outside of the BCS bowls…depending on what happens in the SEC Championship Game.

=== ================================== === ===

Florida @ Florida State

So looking back at what I wrote last week, I acted like Florida would trounce Florida State but I picked a two point win for Florida.

Turns out, I was wrong on both accounts.  Not only did Florida fail to do really move the ball, they couldn’t even score after the first quarter (about 5 minutes into the 1^st quarter!).  So utter domination by the Seminoles.

I tried to find the last time Florida was shut out for 3 quarters (I got tired of looking) and the most recent game was the 2005 Alabama game that Florida lost 31-3.  They kicked a FG in the 2^nd quarter.

But Florida scored a TD on their 1^st possession in 5 plays around the 10:37 mark of the game and it was all downhill from there:

2^nd possession: Fumble on the FLA 45

3^rd possession:  Fumble on the FLA 14 à led to Florida State TD

4^th possession:  Turn over on Downs (Fake Punt) on the FLA 36 à led to Florida State TD

5^th possession:  Punt on 3 and out à led to Florida State TD

6^th possession:  INT on the FSU 20

7^th possession:  Punt on 3 and out à led to Florida State TD

8^th possession:  Punt on 6 and out

9^th possession:  Fumble on the FSU 14 (negated a 16 play, 81 yard, 7:45 drive)

10^th possession: Punt on 3 and out

Ten possessions, 4 punts, 3 fumbles, 1 INT, 1 Turnover on Downs, 1 TD, 0 happy Gator fans.

Yikes.

John Brantley was 6/12, 52 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT.  Anyone still thinks he is the QB next year?  My money is on Jordan Reed and/or Burton Reed.

PLAYER WATCH

Mike Gillislee – no stats

Ron Powell – 2 tackles

LOOKING FORWARD

Florida is bowl eligible and will wait for its destination.

=== ================================================== === ====

Mississipi State @ Ole Miss

This one got out of hand before Ole Miss scored some 4^th quarter TDs to make it look close.

The State defense shut down a pretty lively Ole Miss running game (65 yards on 35 attempts) which was 19^th overall in the country with 207.6 yards a game.

Meanwhile, it was the Chris Relf and LaDarius Perkins show for State.  Relf did his best Cameron Newton impression going 13/20, 288 yards, 3TDs and 1INT in the passing game and rushing 12 times for 66 yards.  Perkins took 13 carries for 98 yards and caught 3 passes for 140 yards and 2 TDs.

It’s like all of a sudden Relf discovered a deft passing touch and Perkins (a freshman) has set himself up for a nice sophomore season (93 carries, 526 yards, 3 TDs).

No one for Ole Miss had a particularly dazzling night.  Jeremiah Masoli threw for 261 yards, a TD and an INT on 24/44 passing.  Star RB Brandon Bolden took 12 carries for 45 yards and a TD, but it came early in the 4^th quarter.  WR Ja-Mes Logan added the other Ole Miss TD last in the 4^th.

The State defense lived up to the billing and pouring it on with some overwhelming offense.

PLAYER WATCH

Chad Bumphis – 1 reception, 44 yards

James Carmon – 2 tackles

Brandon Bolden – 12 yards, 45 yards, 1 TD/ 6 receptions, 78 yards

DT Shackleford ­­– 9 tackles/ 2 TFL/ 1 Sack

LOOKING FORWARD

Miss State is bowl eligible and

Ole Miss will gear up for 2011 and boo Miss State in their bowl game.

=== ====================================== ==== ===

South Carolina @ Clemson

Much like the Florida-Florida State game, this one was ALL Carolina.

Clemson took the opening kickoff and scored on 4 plays to take an early 7-0 lead…and that was it.

The Carolina defense was so dominant; Clemson ran a total of 11 plays in South Carolina territory, a place they only reached on 4 of their 14 possessions.

1^st Quarter: 2 plays:  -4 yard run, 45 yard TD pass

2^nd Quarter:  3 plays:  1 yard run, Incomplete Pass, Incomplete Pass, Punt

4^th Quarter: 5 plays:  16 yard pass, Incomplete Pass, 2 yard run, 0 yard run, -13 yard sack&fumble/ 1 play: -2 yard sack

I’m not saying that Clemson’s offense is dangerous, but, Sonny Jim, 11 plays in an opponent’s territory (and only 4 of those were for positive yards)?!?

Alshon Jeffery had another ridiculous game (5 receptions, 141 yards, TD). He’s gone over 100 yards receiving in 7 games, in 2 games he’s come within at least 3 yards of 100 (Furman – 97, Arkansas – 99), and against Tennessee he was held to 3 catches for 87 yards.  Only Kentucky (6-65) and Florida (6-53) have really kept him in check.

Marcus Lattimore got 23 carries (48 yards), so I have to think they weren’t resting him.  So I’m wondering if Clemson shut him down or…what?

PLAYER WATCH

Marcus Lattimore – 23 rushes, 48 yards/5 receptions, 41 yards

DeVonte Holloman – 4 tackles

LOOKING FORWARD

South Carolina takes on the auburn Tigers Saturday in Atlanta for the SEC Championship.  The Gamecocks look to bring home their 1^st ever SEC trophy in their 1^st ever appearance in the game.  A win would send them to the Sugar Bowl.

=== ========================================== === ===

Wake Forest @ Vanderbilt

I can’t believe I picked Vanderbilt.  That was obviously stupid.

In bigger news HC Robbie Caldwell resigned, effective immediately following the game.

Odd.

I totally called Jordan Matthews with the TD catch…and it was basically all the Vandy offense of the day.

PLAYER WATCH

Jordan Matthews – 7 receptions, 74 yards, TD

LOOKING FORWARD

Vanderbilt will look for a coach and do whatever it is they do after their last game.

=== ========================================== === ===

Georgia Tech @ Georgia

This was a little higher scoring than I anticipated…by Georgia Tech, not Georgia.  And Aaron Murray and AJ Green didn’t prove to be quite the scoring tandem I thought either.

I imagine that it’s tough to prepare for the Georgia Tech Triple Option in a week, but the Bulldogs were coming off a Bye week and it looks like it was a good thing.

Tech never led in this game, but was always nipping at the Bulldogs heels, scoring 5 rushing TDs in the game.  Six different Yellowjackets ran the ball, 4 different scored a TD and 4 different ones averaged at least 5.7 yards a carry.  And that is without the starting QB!

Turnovers were a big theme in this game:

Georgia fumbled the opening KO.  On the ensuing possession, GT turned the ball over on downs on the UGA 20.  Georgia goes 3 plays and punts.  GT drives down to the UGA 5 and fumbles. (That is the first 3 possessions of the football game!)

In the second quarter with Georgia leading 14-7, Georgia turns the ball over on downs on the GT 5 on 4th and 1…GT drives 95 yards to tie the game at 14.

Midway through the 3rd quarter, as Georgia has just tied the game at 21, Caleb King fumbles on the GT 9.  On the ensuing possession, GT runs 5 plays and punts, but UGA PR Branden Smith fumbles the return and GT recovers on the UGA 34.  Five plays later GT fumbles on the UGA 13 yard line and Georgia drives down the field in 8 plays to take a 28-21 lead.  After the ensuing kickoff, the GT QB fumbles on the second play of the drive and Georgia LB Justin Houston returns it for a TD and puts UGA up 35-21.

We’re not done yet…

With about 5 minutes left in the game and Georgia leading 35-34 (GT had just missed the XP), the Bulldogs receive the GT kick off and fumble it…and recover it…only to fumble it again 6 plays later on 4^th and 1 on the GT 23 coming out of a time out.  GT now has the ball on their own 24 yard line.  After losing 6 yards on 2 plays, it’s now 3^rd and 16 on the GT 18.  Two incomplete passes later GT turns it over on downs, and it’s Georgia’s ball with about 2 minutes to play and 18 yards separates them from going up by 8 points.  Two plays later, RB Washaun Ealey runs in for a TD and a 42-34 UGA lead.

With a 1:22 remaining, GT drives down to the UGA 46 and Tech QB Tevin Washington throws in INT to Justin Houston on the UGA 33 to end the game.

WOW!  That sounds like an awesome rivalry game!  I find it funny that UGA’s starting TE is Orson Charles and Georgia Tech’s RB is Orwin Smith.

Well, the Bulldogs outlasted the turnover fest and now Dawg fans get to watch one more game in 2010 as they became bowl eligible with the win.

PLAYER WATCH

Orson Charles – 2 receptions, 67 yards, 1 TD

Branden Smith – 1 rush, 2 yards/ 1 reception, 14 yards/1 PR -2 yards/4 tackles/ PBU

LOOKING FORWARD

The win made Georgia bowl eligible…

Alabama 38, Georgia State 6 [Actual Score: 63-7, Alabama]

South Carolina 28, Troy 21 [Actual Score: 69-24, South Carolina]

Florida 37, Appalachian State 18 [Actual Score: 48-10, Florida]

Arkansas 34, Mississipi State 23 [Actual Score: 38-31, Arkansas]

Tennessee 48, Vanderbilt 16 [Actual Score: 24-10, Tennessee]

LSU 33, Ole Miss 17 [Actual Score:  43-36, LSU]

Week: 6-0

Season: 66-22 (75%)

=== ==================================== === ===

²auburn at ¹⁰Alabama, Friday 1:30p CDT, CBS

We all know the story.  Cameron Newton is pretty much unstoppable running the ball, especially in short yardage.  We now know that he can pass a little bit too; throwing frozen ropes 40 yards down field and hitting people between the numbers.  RBs Michael Dyer and Onterrio McCalebbbbbbbbbbbb are both pretty quick in the hole and able to bowl you over for tough yards (Dyer) and are devastating in space (McCalebbbbbbbbbbb).  WRs Darvin Adams, Terrell Zachary and Emory Blake get open enough to catch a couple of Newton’s 15 passes and they are all pretty reliable.  Throw in an experienced and very good OL and you have an offensive giant.

As far as the auburn defense:  DT Nick Fairley and the LB corps.  Other than that, they aren’t worth discussing.

Alabama has a nice offense of their own…although their production hasn’t lived up to the pre-season expectations.  Although they want to be balanced, they tend to lean on the pass to set up the run.  WR Julio Jones is exceptional.  WR Marquis Maze is a blossoming star.  RBs Trent Richardson and Mark Ingram are two of the best anywhere, but some niggling injuries and an OL that isn’t quite as dominant as year’s passed has led to an underwhelming running game.

Alabama’s defense is starting to jell, but still doesn’t have the same feel as the ferocious and DOMINATING Alabama defenses the last few years under Coach Saban.

Here’s the rub.

IT SEEMS that to be successful against auburn, you need a DL that can generate a pass rush and be able to play solid man defense and contain what is in front of you.  First of all, Alabama hasn’t been the run-stuffing defense of old in 2010.  Second of all, outside of DE Marcell Dareus, there is no pass rush.  And the Alabama secondary is littered with 1^st year starters besides star S Mark Barron.  So that’s a problem.

For auburn to win, I think they just do what they’ve been doing.  It’s been working.

For Alabama to win, I would think they employ a similar defense that was used in the SEC Championship game last year against Tebow:  Get pressure, but don’t over-pursue Newton; keep him in front of you and either make him throw it, or make a sure tackle (not the kill shot).

Alabama plays a different brand of football in Bryant-Denny Stadium; they are 20-0 (the last loss was in 2007…against Louisiana-Monroe), they have allowed 1 rushing TD during that streak and have scored 43 rushing TDs.

This will be auburn’s first hostile road game (sorry, Kentucky, Ole Miss and Miss State, you aren’t hostile).  That will be a factor.

Another factor will be the return game.  Who makes a mistake?  For auburn, Demond Washington is terrific and has already run back a few kicks for TDs this year.  For Alabama, Marquis Maze is rounding into a Javy-esque weapon on kick/punt returns.  Both guys are dangerous and can turn the game SO QUICK.

But what I think will be the difference is turnovers.  Neither QB throws a lot of INTs (Newton – 6, McElroy – 5), but Alabama is terrific in creating them (they lead the nation with 21).  Alabama has at least 1 INT in every game except for LSU.

A rockin’ Bryant-Denny Stadium and a confusing defensive scheme that I’m sure Coach Saban will have cooked up will be the difference in the 2010 Iron Bowl.

THE PICK: Alabama 37, auburn 33

=== ================================== === ===

Kentucky at Tennessee, 11:21a CDT, ESPNU/ SEC Network

Tennessee has been hot lately.  Now, they’ve been beating up on the Memphis’s, Ole Miss’s and the Vanderbilt’s of the world, but when you’re not very good, a win is a win and it breeds confidence.  The expectations were probably about 6-6 for UT during the preseason…and then they played a few games and the expectations probably lowered a bit.  But after a good second half, this is essentially a 1-game playoff for bowl eligibility.  And lo and behold, it’s AT HOME against Kentucky!  So this is a gimme, right?

NOPE!

If you are Kentucky, there’s not a kid in the entire program that has been alive since the last victory over Tennessee.  25 years is a loooong time.  And to be able to go into Tennessee’s house and get a win would be an incredible way to end the streak!  Not to mention that this is one of the worst Tennessee teams that you’ve played in a long time.  Not to mention your best player, Randall Cobb, is from Knoxville’s backyard and was spurned by Volunteers.

Man the subplots are out of control in this game!!

For my money, there isn’t a better game to kick off Saturday morning football than this one.  My gut says Tennessee, but my heart says Kentucky.

THE PICK: Kentucky 34, Tennessee 29

=== ================================== === ===

⁵LSU at ¹²Arkansas (Little Rock), 2:30p CDT, CBS

Talk about another wacky rivalry.  In the last 5 years LSU has a 3-2 edge in the series and average margin of victory has been 2.5 points.  This year should be no different.

LSU rolls into Little Rock with a sound running game, a QB that is starting to actually put up some numbers and a physical defense.

Arkansas counters with a QB and WR corps that is simply scorching defenses and a running game that is also gashing people.  Their defense has been good enough…for the most part.

LSU has the The Hat on their side and is grass-eating, unorthodox, and devil-may-care play calling.  (Side Note: Man, you know those LSU players love playing for Les Miles.  I love him and I just get to watch him on tv, I can’t imagine being around him all the time and feeding off of his brash audacity.  As an Alabama fan, when he looked into America’s eye at the half of the Bama and said, “We’re right where we want to be” after getting completely dominated for a half, I was like, “Well, crap…we just lost.” I bet they would jump headfirst into hell for that man and be confident that they’d come out the other side.  Just an observation.)

Arkansas has the home field advantage and a QB tailor made for Coach Petrino’s evil genius offense.

I question if Arkansas’s defense can make enough key stops.  I also question which Jordan Jefferson will show up.  But I don’t question Arkansas’s offense.  At home.

THE PICK: Arkansas 35, LSU 24

=== ================================== === ===

Florida at ²²Florida State, 2:30 CDT, ABC

You have to go all the way back to 2003 to find a season where Florida State beat Florida.  Most of the kids playing in this game were in 9^th and 10^th grade then.

Florida State is having a great first season in the post-Bobby Bowden era.  They are 8-3 and lead the ACC Atlantic division.

Florida is having a subpar first season in the post-Tim Tebow era.  They are 7-4 and are second in the SEC East.

And for me, the comparison stops there.  I just can’t imagine an ACC school beating anyone in the SEC…even in the SEC East.

Admittedly, I don’t know much about Florida State this year.  But I do know that Florida can still be a dangerous team.  They’ve been tested more than Florida State and they have better players than Florida State.

I feel like Jordan Reed will have a big impact on this game for Florida…be it passing or catching or running.

I’ll look for Florida to add to their streak of 6 in a row versus the Seminoles.  Although, it wouldn’t hurt my feelings one bit if Florida were to lose.

THE PICK: Florida 31, Florida State 29

=== ================================ === ===

²⁵Mississipi State at Ole Miss, 6:00p CDT, ESPNU

The Egg Bowl.  I was curious why in the world this rivalry game was called the Egg Bowl, so I hopped over to Wikipedia and looked it up…

…and the reason given was too stupid to repeat here.   I was going to link it, but it would be a waste of your time.  Seriously.

So here we are.  The battle for Mississippi.

Jeremiah Masoli versus Chris Relf = Slight advantage Masoli. Both can hurt you running.  Masoli is a better passer.  I didn’t know Relf had a 20/30 220 yard passing game in him (and State fans didn’t either, don’t even pretend like you did) until last week.  I want to see him do that more (or even, AGAIN) before I call him a passing threat.

Brandon Bolden versus Vic Ballard = PUSH. Both are equally dangerous and are physical runners.

Ole Miss WRs versus Miss St WRs = PUSH. Neither group scares you because the QBs and RBs are too busy running.

Ole Miss defense versus Miss St defense = State.  Here it is folks.  This one isn’t close.  The State DL is aggressive and their LBs are fast and physical and their corners are young but steady.  Ole Miss has a good LB and some decent role players.

Ballgame.

THE PICK: Mississipi State 34, Ole Miss 27

==== ================================= === ===

¹⁸South Carolina at Clemson, 6:00p CDT, ESPN

South Carolina has been weird team to get a feel on this year.  They upset #1 Alabama and then lose to Kentucky the next week.  They get mowed down by Arkansas at home, but take Florida to the woodshed in the Swamp.  Now, they have a rivalry game on the road at Clemson but the week after they get a chance to avenge their last second loss to auburn AND win the school’s first SEC Championship.

Clemson’s best win of the year was a close call at home versus NC State.  They too had a close loss to auburn.  To be fair, all of their losses (@ auburn, Miami, @ UNC, @ Boston College and @ Florida State) were by 9 points or less and all but Miami were on the road.

I think the story for Carolina is how well does Stephan Garcia play and how to get the most production out of Marcus Lattimore with the least amount of carries.

For Clemson, how will DeQuan Bowers disrupt the pocket and affect Garcia?  Can the offense make enough plays to keep you in the game?

THE PICK: South Carolina 31, Clemson 24

=== ==================================== == ====

Wake Forest at Vanderbilt, 6:30p CDT, ESPNU

If this was the only football game on TV Saturday, would you watch it?  Or let me pose it this way:  If this was the only football game on TV Saturday and you are a Vandy/Wake Forest fan, do you watch it if a basketball game is also on?

Blah!

Vandy WR Jordan Matthews will score a TD.

THE PICK: Vanderbilt 23, Wake Forest 21

=== ============================== === ==========

Georgia Tech at Georgia, 6:45p CDT, ESPN/ESPN2

I was thinking the other day that I haven’t heard much about Georgia Tech.  I just looked at their schedule and now I know why.  Not many 6-5 teams get a lot of publicity (see:  Tigers, Clemson).  The option attack that Tech brings to the table has got to be tough to prepare for in a week’s time.  So, it’s good news for Georgia that they are coming off a Bye week.

Regardless, I think Georgia is way too much for Tech to handle this year.  I know Georgia is 5-6 going into this game (that just looks weird to type that, by the way) but this offense is clicking and I really don’t think Tech can keep up (they’ve scored more than 28 points only twice this season, against South Carolina State and Duke).  Georgia has scored under 28 points just four times this season; against South Carolina, Arkansas, Miss State and Colorado.

Aaron Murray is too dynamic and AJ Green is too good.  Those two alone are good enough to beat Tech.

THE PICK: Georgia 35, Georgia Tech 18

=== ================================== === ===

Now, on to the real football…

Georgia State @ Alabama

Well.  This is what everyone expected.  Alabama clearly could have named their score.  It was so bad that there were a handful of kids that took snaps and no one outside of momma and them knew their names.  But good for you scout teamers!  I’m sure it’s ridiculously rewarding to get bludgeoned every week in practice and finally get to see the playing field during a televised game.  Well done.

For the fans or for me anyway, the best thing about these games is it gives us a glimpse into the future.  Alabama trotted out 4 scholarship RBs (Ingram, Eddie Lacy, Demetrius Goode and Jalston Fowler).  The one that gets me excited is freshman Jalston Fowler (6’0, 245) because despite his large frame, the boy’s got some speed.

On defense CJ Mosley continues to shine.  He’s really positioning himself for a big-time sophomore season.

And on the bright side, no one threw any bricks at Georgia State coach Bill Curry.  So that’s good.

PLAYER WATCH

AJ McCarron – 7-9, 57 yards, TD, 0 whippings from Coach Saban

CJ Mosley – 2 tackles, QBH, 1 INT, 41 yard return, 1 TD

LOOKING FORWARD

Alabama hosts auburn in the Iron Bowl and looks to spoil auburn’s magical purchased oddly undefeated season.

=== ====================================== === ====

Troy @ South Carolina

I hope that Carolina didn’t use all their points in this game for the rest of the season!  Sixty Nine Points?!

Marcus Lattimore got his handful of carries and watched from the sideline as Brian Maddox and Kenny Miles finished carrying the load.

The Carolina defense shut down a great passing attack (183 total passing yards) and a dynamic WR in Jerrel Jernigan (6 receptions, 30 yards and a TD).

Stephen Garcia stayed sharp (9/12, 198 yards, 2TDs) and Alshon Jefferies caught 5 passes for 123 yards.

If Carolina can stay injury free this weekend versus rival Clemson, auburn might be in for a game.

PLAYER WATCH

Marcus Lattimore – 7 carries, 102 yards, 3TDs/ 1 reception, 6 yards

DeVonte Holloman – 4 tackles

LOOKING FORWARD

Carolina travels to Clemson.

=== ====================================== === ====

Appalachian State @ Florida

The score was 35-0 before Appy State got on the board with a FG.

John Brantley had a nice day passing (16/22, 222 yards, INT) but didn’t throw a TD.  Jordan Reed did though (2/3, 14 yards).  He also ran the ball 11 times for 73 yards and 3 TDs.  He’s also 6’3, 240, which is curiously close to some guy named Tim Tebow’s size.  Call me crazy, but methinks John Brantley is in for a long summer camp to win the QB job.  Oh, and Reed’s TD pass was caught by John Brantley.  Just sayin…

PLAYER WATCH

Mike Gilislee – 8 rushes, 56 yards

Ron Powell – 9 tackles, 1 TFL

LOOKING FORWARD

The Gators travel over to Tallahassee to square off against the Seminoles.

=== ===================================== === ===

Arkansas @ Mississipi State

This is the game I wanted to watch more than anything this week, but I was busy doing my best Greg McElroy (doing his best Mike Vick) impersonation.

Mississipi State QB Chris Relf did his best Cameron Newton impersonation (20/30 passing for 224 yards and 31 carries for 103 and a TD) and still came up short against the visiting Hogs.

Vic Ballard, poor guy, was having a whale of a game (33 rushes, 150 yards, 3 TDs) when he fumbled the potential go-ahead TD on the one yard line out the side of the endzone in the 1^st OT.  He was redeemed when Razorback K Zach Hocker missed a 39 yard FG for the win.

On the next OT possession, Ryan Mallet and Company ran 4 plays and scored a TD, then stopped the State offense to seal the win.

At the beginning of the season, I can’t imagine many people expecting Mississipi State taking Arkansas, whom many believed to be a dark horse, to the wire in a double OT game.  State should be a force in 2011.

And so should Knile Davis!  This kid keeps stringing together monster games near the end of the season.  He took 30 rushes for 187 yards and 2 TDs and caught 2 passes for 12 yards; 7 of those yards were for the game winning TD.

Meanwhile, Ryan Mallett had another typical Ryan Mallett game: 17/26, 305 yards, 3 TDs, 1INT.

And Jerious Wright caught TWO passes for 105 yards and a TD.  Wow.

PLAYER WATCH

Ronnie Wingo – no stats

DJ Williams – 4 receptions, 70 yards, TD

Chad Bumphis – 1 carry, 6 yards/5 receptions, 45 yards/ 1KOR, 23 yards

James Carmon – no stats

LOOKING FORWARD

Mississipi State travels to Oxford, MS for the Egg Bowl.

Arkansas hosts LSU in Little Rock.  This game should be awesome.

==== ========================================= === ===

Tennessee @ Vanderbilt

In perusing the stats, this looked like a fairly close game.

Tennessee QB Tyler Bray had a decent game (16/27, 232 yards, 2TDs, 2INTs).  You’d like to see the turnovers go away, but for a true freshman, you’d probably take that outing every Saturday.

Tauren Poole had another effective day gaining 99 yards and a TD on 23 carries.  He’s setting himself up for a nice senior year.

Jared Funk has gotten action in the last 4 games and significant action in the last 2.  It seems like Robbie Caldwell is coming around to the fact that Larry Smith is a great athlete, but maybe not so much a great QB.  Or a good QB.  Or a decent QB.

Not much else to see here, except for another Jordan Matthews sighting!

PLAYER WATCH

Justin Hunter – 1 reception, 15 yards, TD

Corey Miller – no stats

Jordan Matthews – 5 receptions, 62 yards, TD

LOOKING FORWARD

Tennessee hosts a hungry and vengeful Kentucky Wildcats team.

Vanderbilt hosts fellow academic juggernaut Wake Forest.  And after the football game, a rousing game of chess will ensue and then, a debate.

==== ========================================== === ===

Ole Miss @ LSU

I was shocked to see that Ole Miss scored 36 points on LSU’s defense and then I was embarrassed because Alabama only scored 21.  I mean, auburn scored 24.  In fact, 36 points were by far the most LSU has allowed all season!  Against OLE MISS!?!

And then I see that Ole Miss had a 1 point lead until about 45 seconds left in the game!  Unreal.

I guess something clicked with Jordan Jefferson has he lit up the Rebel secondary for 254 yards on 13/17 passing (1TD and 1INT).  He also added 45 yards and a TD on 9 rushes.

RB Stevan Ridley chipped in 3 TDs and 89 yards on 18 carries.

Patrick Peterson left his mark with an INT and 151 return yards.

Ole Miss RB, Brandon Bolden and his friends ran wild on the LSU defense, busting them for 236 yards.  Bolden and Jeremiah Masoli each chipped in 2 TDs.

Freshman Jeff Scott gave Ole Miss great field position all day with 188 KOR yards.

With this loss, the Rebel’s bowl chances are over, but can still salvage their season with a win in the Egg Bowl.

PLAYER WATCH

Brandon Bolden – 18 rushes, 91 yards, 2TDs/1 reception (-5) yards/1-1 passing, 7 yards

DT Shackleford – 5 tackles

Rueben Randle – 2 receptions, 51 yards

Craig Loston – 1 tackle/ 1 TFL

LOOKING FORWARD

Ole Miss hosts the Mississipi State Bulldogs in the Egg Bowl.

LSU travels up to Little Rock, Arkansas and will try to improve to 11-1; and just in case something happens with auburn, be ready to go to Atlanta and face off against South Carolina.

Just some alleged speculation.

Last Week:

Tennessee 26, Ole Miss 22 [Actual Score:  52-14, T ennessee]

Kentucky 38, Vanderbilt 17 [Actual Score:  38-20, Kentucky]

auburn 44, Georgia 38 [Actual Score:  49-31, auburn]

Arkansas 38, UTEP 24 [Actual Score:  58-21, Arkansas]

LSU 28, Louisiana-Monroe 15 [Actual Score:  51-0, LSU]

Florida 31, South Carolina 18 [Actual Score:  36-14, South Carolina] X

Mississipi State 27, Alabama 21 [Actual Score: 30-10, Alabama] X

Week: 5-2

Overall:  60-22 (73%)

=== ================================== ==== ===

Georgia State at ¹¹Alabama, Thursday 6:30p CDT, ESPNU

I can’t imagine this game being close much longer after the opening kickoff.  And I can’t imagine the starters being in the game much longer after the 1^st quarter ends.

Probably a boring game if you’re not a Bama fan.

THE PICK: Alabama 38, Georgia State 6

=== =========================== ==== ====

Troy at ¹⁷South Carolina, 12:21p CDT, SEC Network

Pretend to be interested in Troy or rest key players for the SEC Championship Game and risk an upset?

For sure, Marcus Lattimore won’t carry the ball 40 times.  And that might be a problem.  When he doesn’t put up big numbers, SC typically loses.

Freshman QB Corey Robinson has thrown for 2,553 yards (23rd in FBS) and 18 TDs…and 12 INTS.  WR Jerel Jernigan is the leading receiver (58 receptions, 617 yards, and 4TDs) and though small (5’9, 190) he’s a pretty good target and can make plays.  The Trojan offense is the 18th best in FBS rolling up 450 yards (311 passing (12th in FBS) and 154 rushing (59th)).

There’s no doubt that the Carolina players are more talented across the board, but I have to wonder how important this game is to them.  I mean they COULD lose to Troy and Clemson and win the SEC Championship Game and still get a Sugar Bowl berth (What a crazy season!)  So how long do we see the best Carolina players?  The Gamecock offense is gaining 395 yards a game (52nd) – 251 passing (46th) and 156 rushing (56)…so not as prolific as  Troy’s offense (pretending that all leagues are equal).

The Troy defense is giving up 31 points a game.  Carolina scores about 30 points a game.

So here’s the deal.  Carolina should probably win playing starters or not.  A win here and Troy is bowl eligible and they get to add an attractive win on their resume.  But Carolina goes to the same bowl no matter what happens in the regular season (provided they beat auburn in Atlanta).  I would rest key people (or maybe just Lattimore) and trust my team and game plan is still better than Troy’s.

If you think about, South Carolina is “ALL IN” as well.  This season has approached uncharted territory for the Carolina program.  There’s no guarantee that Florida will be this down again and Georgia has vastly improved since the beginning of the 2010 season.  The time is now.  Rest the workhorses!

THE PICK: South Carolina 28, Troy 21

=== ======================================= ====

Appalachian State at Florida, 12:30 CDT, ESPN3

The former giant killer and current FCS juggernaut will try to make it 4 loses in a row for the Gators in the Swamp.

It’s odd seeing Florida unranked.  I don’t know how Appy State’s FCS success translates to FBS in 2010, but I don’t guess it would totally shock me to see this game be close.   I think I would be shocked to see Florida lose.

I don’t think there’s anything to see here.

THE PICK: Florida 37, Appalachian State 18

=== ======================================= === ===

¹³Arkansas at ²¹ Mississipi State, 6:00p CDT ESPN

State is coming off a disappointing performance in Tuscaloosa. Maybe they were dealing with too much emotion after the death of Nick Bell.  Maybe Alabama is still pretty good.  I think State is a fine team that got behind early and aren’t built to play catch up.

Which probably spells trouble as Arkansas comes to town.  State has been great at home (only 1 loss – a 3 pt game vs auburn) and has a good defense (allowing 15.5 points per game at home, 18 overall).

Arkansas has only been kept under 30points all year twice (vs Alabama – 20 (L) and vs Texas A&M – 24 (W)).  They will score.  A lot.  Unless…

…State can get on the board early and then sustain long drives running the ball that keeps the Razorback offense on the sidelines – which is exactly what State does best.  Key to this plan is making some stops on defense.

Even though they are at home and have a great team this year…State just isn’t made to win this kind of game.

THE PICK: Arkansas 34, Mississipi State 23

=== ======================================= === ===

Tennessee at Vanderbilt, 6:30p CDT, ESPN3

Tennessee may have been beating bad teams the last few weeks, but I don’t think it makes a difference to the players.  Plus, all the confidence they are gaining is invaluable.

QB Tyler Bray is showing the SEC (or the 9 people outside of Knoxville watching UT football this season) why he is going to be a really good quarterback for the next few years.  And WR Justin Hunter is showing the same thing.  Right now, (as far as sophomores and freshman are concerned) it’s Alshon Jeffery, a big gap, Justin Hunter and everyone else, in my book.

It wouldn’t matter if the UT defense was horrible; Vandy’s not moving the ball on anyone.

This game is already over…

THE PICK: Tennessee 48, Vanderbilt 16

=== =================================== === ===

Ole Miss at ⁵LSU, 7:00p CDT, CBS

Did You Know…that Ole Miss currently has a 2 game winning streak over LSU?  That Houston Nutt has a 3 game winning streak over Les Miles?  And 2 of those 3 games were in Baton Rouge.  It’s true.

What does that mean going into Saturday’s game?

Other than I waste a lot of time diligently research for this blog, it means only one thing; first, let me back up some.  Here are the scores of the last 5 games versus Houston Nutt and Les Miles:

2005:  LSU 19, Arkansas 17 in Baton Rouge

2006:  LSU 31, Arkansas 26 in Little Rock

2007:  Arkansas 50, LSU 48 in Baton Rouge

2008:  Ole Miss 31, LSU 13 in Baton Rouge

2009:  Ole Miss 25, LSU 23 in Oxford

So what does this mean?  Ole Miss has no chance.  Ole Miss wants this game to be as close and sloppy as possible…except for that’s EXACTLY the kinds of games that the 2010 LSU team thrives in.  So the best possible scenario for Ole Miss is also the worst case scenario for Ole Miss…no chance.

BUT, throw in the “Magical-Houston-Nutt-Wins-Games-His-Team-Should-NEVER-Win-EVAR” and zero chance to win immediately flips to CERTAIN UPSET.

I mean, that logic is as clear and plain as the philosophical gobbledy-goo that Les Miles spits out week after week.

I’m just kidding…unless Ole Miss wins.

THE PICK: LSU 33, Ole Miss 17

The good news:  Tennessee KILLED Ole Miss.

The bad news:  Ole Miss also lost to Vandy…so they aren’t very good.  But hey, an SEC win is an SEC win.  I mean, ask Kentucky how bad it feels to lose to Ole Miss.

And I think Kentucky will beat Tennessee.

What does all that mean?

That I don’t want to recap this game.  Sorry….

PLAYER WATCH

Brandon Bolden – 12 rushes, 113 yards, 2TDs/1 reception, -5 yards

DT Shackleford – 4 tackles/1 sack/1.5 TFL

Justin Hunter – 3 receptions, 114 yards, 2TD

Corey Miller – 3 tackles/1 sack/ 1 TFL

LOOKING FORWARD

Tennessee travels to Nashville to play Vanderbilt in what they hope will be win #5.

Ole Miss travels to LSU.  Nutt looks to make it 4 in a row over Les Miles.

=== ========================= ===

Kentucky at Vanderbilt

I wonder if anyone watched this game?

Cobb looks like he had fun (stats below).

Jordan Matthews has played in 4 games, caught 3 passes…2 of which went for TDs.  Maybe…throw him the ball more?  He’s a big target (6’3, 195).  And he’s only a freshman, so that’s good news for Vanderbilt.  Bad news, bad QB play…among other things….

PLAYER WATCH

***Due to Warren Norman being out for the remainder of the season, I’ll be watching Madison Academy product, WR Jordan Matthews***

Randall Cobb – 10 rushes, 170 yards, 2TDs/1-1, 7yards passing/3 receptions, 56 yards/5PR, 19 yards/1KOR, 34 yards

Taylor Wyndham – 1.5 tackle

Jordan Matthews – 1 reception, 4 yards, TD

LOOKING FORWARD

Kentucky is off preparing for Tennessee.  I wonder if they’ve heard much about a losing to them for 25 straight years.  Maybe once or twice this week?

Vanderbilt hosts Tennessee.

=== ============================= === ===

²auburn vs Georgia

For a half, this game was crazy.  I remember sitting on the couch at halftime and thinking to myself, “auburn’s gonna onside the 2^nd half kickoff because they can’t stop AJ Green.” There’s no way to prove that, but I’m pretty sure a ton of other people watching that game thought the same thing.

Georgia had a good defensive plan in the first half, but didn’t play disciplined enough and ran out of rested bodies.  Since I’m betting DC Todd Grantham learned a thing or two from Nick Saban, I’m also betting that Nick Saban (and Kirby Smart) have a few things in mind for the auburn offense (they had better, since they did some auburn work during the Bye week instead of making sure they beat LSU!!).

Anyway.

I’m not sure why Georgia stopped the whole Murray-to-Green thing.  I mean, that was unstoppable…

…about as unstoppable as Nick Fairley busting through the line and going into attack mode on Murray’s back.  And side.  And knee.

Or about as unstoppable as Cameron Newton on 3^rd and short.

I had already turned the channel once it was certain that Georgia wasn’t going to pull out the upset, so I missed the shenanigans there at the end.  But I’ll just offer this comment:

If the refs did their due diligence during the game to stop all of Fairley’s hyper-aggressive cheat shots, then none of that would have happened.

[Favorite part of the game: When FB Eric Smith got a Personal Foul during a play review…WHILE HE WAS ON THE BENCH for jawing with a Georgia player that was on the field!  That’s just too much.]

PLAYER WATCH

Michael Dyer – 13 rushes, 60 yards

Corey Lemonier – 1 tackle, 1 QB Hurry

Orson Charles – 3 receptions, 56 yards

Branden Smith – 1 rush, 0 yards

LOOKING FORWARD

auburn is off trying to figure out this Cameron Newton situation.

auburn is off preparing for Alabama.

auburn is off trying to figure out the Cameron Newton situation.

Georgia is off preparing for Georgia Tech.

=== ============================== === ===

¹⁵Arkansas at UTEP

Ryan Mallett didn’t surpass 300 yards passing (but did throw 5! TD passes) and Knile Davis did go over 180 rushing yards (this guy is gashing people in a passing offense…and yes I understand how that makes sense, but why isn’t no one talking about this guy?!  He’s on pace for at least 1,000 rushing!)

UTEP came to play.  They were making Arkansas match scores with them early on.

Man, there are some very quality teams in the SEC West this year.  There might not be enough great bowl games to send them all too.  If Arkansas is the 5^th best SEC team (a guess?) they should probably wipe the field with whomever they are matched up with in their bowl game…like a Big 12 #3 team or something?

PLAYER WATCH

Ronnie Wingo – 9 rushes, 43 yards/2 receptions, 22 yards

DJ Williams – 5 receptions, 58 yards, TD

LOOKING FORWARD

Arkansas travels to Starkville, MS to face the Miss State Bulldogs.

=== ================================= === ==

Louisiana-Monroe at ⁵LSU

So LSU didn’t lay an egg and forget to show up for this one.

Congrats.  You whipped Louisana-Monroe.

So explain this:

Jefferson – 4/10, 51 yards

Lee – 4/12, 44 yards

Combined, the QBs got 8/22, 95 yards…but LSU wins 51-0?  So weird.

Hey, it’s working…

PLAYER WATCH

Rueben Randle – No stats

Craig Loston – 3 tackles/ 1INT, 11 yards/1 PBU

LOOKING FORWARD

LSU hosts Ole Miss.

=== ================================== ==== ===

²³South Carolina at ²²Florida

Wow.  I couldn’t have been more wrong about this game.  I guess Florida is just that bad this year.  I’m not sure if I’m buying South Carolina being THAT good…unless they were just truly looking past Arkansas last week.

[Side Note: Did anyone else find it funny that John Brantley was dispelling rumors about him transferring out of Florida and that he would, in fact, be in a Gator uniform for his senior year?  I’m a Florida fan; I’m reading those rumors and repeating to myself,”Please be true, please be true, please….”]

At the half, Florida had 2 first downs…TWO?! And the longest play from scrimmage was 15 yards?  I just can’t imagine that happening under an Urban Meyer coached team, IN THE SWAMP!  If you had told me that at the beginning of the season I would have laughed at you.  If you had thrown in that a berth to the SEC Championship Game was on the line, I would have punched you in the mouth.  Crazy times.

Speaking of punching someone in the mouth; how about Marcus Lattimore (true freshman, by the way…does anyone else forget that while watching him?) toting the rock FORTY TIMES for 200+ yards and 3 TDs.  That’s just unfathomable with the talent on the Gator defense.  I know they lost a lot of great players, but I have to believe you just don’t care anymore if you allow someone to go for 200+ yards AT YOUR HOUSE!

So, in other news, I’m the biggest South Carolina fan in the entire world on December 5^th.  Lifelong Gamecock fans who have been waiting on this game in Atlanta since Spurrier became your coach:  YALL.  GOT.  NOTHING.  ON.  ME.  I’m 100x times the Gamecock fan you’ve ever been come December 5^th.  You’ve got school pride on your side?  I’ve got 28 years of LOATHING your opponent, which is longer than you’ve thought about being SEC Champions.

And it’s my blog, so I win.

PLAYER WATCH

Marcus Lattimore – 40 rushes, 212 yards, 3TDs/2 receptions, 31 yards

DeVonte Holloman – 1 tackle, 1 PBU

Mike Gillislee – 1KOR, 14 yards

Ron Powell – 1 KOR, 20 yards/ 2 tackles

LOOKING FORWARD

South Carolina hosts Troy.

Florida hosts Appalachian State.

=== ====================================== === ==

¹⁹Mississipi State at ¹²Alabama

Just as I predicted, Alabama would handle the surging Bulldogs.  The leading receiver, Julio Jones would be the leading rusher.  The leading rusher, Mark Ingram, would be the leading receiver.  And Marquis Maze would have a breakout game and show the nation that he’s ready to be a star in 2011.  The defense would improve and Robert Lester would revert back to early season form and intercept 2 passes.  Seriously, that’s exactly how I wrote it up:  http://feedthefear.wordpress.com/2010/11/12/2010-football-week-11-preview-and-picks/ [Scroll to the bottom]

Mississipi State just doesn’t look the same coming from behind because they aren’t built to do so.  They didn’t look horrible.  Alabama is the better team and Bryant-Denny Stadium has been a hard place for anyone to win in the last few years.

I like this State team.  I think they take an 8-4 season and go to a pretty decent bowl game and are freaking excited with a 9-4 record going into 2011.  I’m impressed.

PLAYER WATCH

Chad Bumphis – 1 rush, -1 yard/ 3 receptions, 43 yards, TD/1PR, 3 yards/2KOR, 30 yards

James Carmon – 1 tackle

AJ McCarron – 2/5, 50 yards

CJ Mosley – 12 tackles, 1 PBU

LOOKING FORWARD

Mississipi State hosts Arkansas.

Alabama plays a rare Thursday night game; hosting Georgia State.

Last Week:

Florida 45, Vanderbilt 9 [Actual Score: 55-14 Florida]

Georgia 45, Idaho State 13 [Actual Score: 55-7 Georgia]

Kentucky 42, Charleston State 18 [Actual Score:  49-21 Kentucky]

auburn 49, UT-Chattanooga 17 [Actual Score: 62-24 auburn]

Alabama 24, LSU 21 [Actual Score:  24-21 LSU] X

Ole Miss 42, Louisiana-Lafayette 23 [Actual Score: 43-21 Ole Miss]

Arkansas 35, South Carolina 31 [Actual Score: 41-20 Arkansas]

Tennessee 28, Memphis 12 [50-14 Tennessee]

Week: 7-1

Overall:  55-20 (73%)

=== =========================== ==== ====

Ole Miss at Tennessee, 11:00a CDT, CBS

This is the toughest game to figure out of the week.  Both teams are capable of putting up points.  Both teams are enigmas.  And both teams are running out of chances to gain bowl eligibility.

If Tyler Bray starts at quarterback for Tennessee, I actually think they have a better chance.  Even though he’s a true freshman, from what I’ve seen, he gives the Vols the better chance of being successful.  For some reason, the offense looks more responsive under his direction.

I feel like RB Brandon Bolden will be the key for Ole Miss, if they win this game.  I could see a scenario that has him pounding the defense in the first half and then once they are tired (and their lack of depth catches up with them) Ole Miss will unleash the speedy Jeff Scott.

I’m just going to stick with the home team.

THE PICK: Tennessee 26, Ole Miss 22

==== ============================== ==== ===

Vanderbilt at Kentucky, 11:21a CDT, SEC Network

I really can’t imagine a scenario in which Vanderbilt wins another game.  Especially with RB Warren Norman out for the year; Vanderbilt is pretty much bereft of game breaking talent.

Going on the road is always tough.  But going on the road to face a Kentucky team who is one win from going to a 5^th consecutive bowl, might just been too much for the Commodores to overcome.

Not to mention all the weapons Kentucky has on offense.  I’m not sure there is anything Vandy can do to win this one…except for maybe…purchase a ringer like another SEC team (allegedly) has done…

THE PICK: Kentucky 38, Vanderbilt 17

=== ================================ === ===

Georgia at ²auburn, 2:30p CDT, CBS

See what I did there, in the paragraph above?  THAT was a flawless segue!

Will or won’t auburn sit Cameron Newton?  As of this writing he’s playing and I can’t imagine they would sit him anyway…after all, they are, “All In”.

But, I’m inclined to say that even if Newton sits, the outcome won’t matter.  Georgia has been preparing for Newton and the game plan, might be a tad different if, say, Barrett Trotter or Neil Caudle were to line up under center…UNLESS…Kodi Burns returns to the position from whence he came and finishes the season and his auburn career as the QB.  (PLEASE BE KODI BURNS, PLEASE BE KODI BURNS).

Anyway.   I think the OL is real.  I think the speed of the auburn RBs is real (McCalebbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbb!).  I think the offensive scheme gets some WRs wide open.  So with or without Newton, I’m not sure it matters offensively.

Now, auburn’s defense will have their hands full.  I don’t have to say how important AJ Green will be in this game.  The Georgia OL will HAVE TO keep DT Nick Fairley away from QB Aaron Murray for him to be successful enough for an upset.  In just 10 games, Murray has emerged as one of the top SEC QBs and he has the ability to make things uncomfortable for the auburn defense.

Some pretty special things will have to align for this game to go in Georgia’s favor.  Turnovers, taking their game to a completely different level, and of course, a higher power suggesting #2 sit.

THE PICK: auburn 44, Georgia 38

=== =============================== === ===

UTEP at ¹⁵Arkansas, 6:00p CDT, ESPNU

After a brief cup of coffee in Tuscaloosa, Mike Price re-enters the SEC when he and his UTEP Miners come rolling (baby) into Fayetteville.

UTEP has a dynamic QB in Trevor Vittatoe.  He has moved the ball a little bit in 2010; 2,260 passing yards and 19 TDs.  And his WR, Kris Adams (6’3, 195) has caught 37 passes for 743 yards and 10 TDs, is very similar to what the Arkansas defense sees every day in practice.

UTEP will score, but this game will be a route.  Arkansas has too much talent and a raucous home crowd at night.

Ryan Mallett will throw for 300+ again as the Razorbacks pad their W total for a better bowl destination.

THE PICK: Arkansas 38, UTEP 24

=== =================================== === ===

Louisiana-Monroe at ⁵LSU, 6:00p CDT, ESPN3

I would say this game will be a blowout, but we know better.  I have to imagine that ULM is better than McNeese State (who curiously gave LSU a tough game for about 2.5 quarters) so unless the Tigers have turned the corner on their odd play, this game might be a little closer than we think.

But LSU will most definitely win.  Probably.

THE PICK: LSU 28, ULM 15

=== ================================== === ===

²³South Carolina at ²²Florida, 6:15p CDT, ESPN

Well Gamecock fans, this is it.  Are you as good as you think you are?  One game separates you from the SEC Championship game and if there was a list of SEC teams that you would rather NOT play in order to get to Atlanta, I have to believe Florida would be first on that list:  They have been there SO many times, they have a history with your coach (National Titles, a Heisman trophy) and it seems like they are putting some stuff together.

Too bad you wasted your Bye week on Alabama.  THIS is where you needed it.

You got hit in the mouth at home last week by Arkansas and now you’re going to the Swamp against a team with a lot to prove; to themselves, their fans and to the nation.

Carolina needs to make sure Marcus Lattimore gets going early and stays healthy.  As incredible as Alshon Jefferey is at WR, he’s not the key to this game.  In the 3 games that Florida has lost (Alabama, LSU and M State) they got killed by the running game (and turnovers).  For most of the season, Carolina has been as successful as Lattimore.

Florida would be the last team I’d want to play right now too, considering how they’ve really been clicking since of their Bye week.  Whatever they did, they probably should have done in the summer.  Carolina’s secondary is reeling right now and Florida’s ability to get their speedy guys in space that can get to the second level of the defense will be the Gamecocks undoing.

Carolina might not ever have a better chance this decade to reach Atlanta in December.  But of course, it comes down to Florida.

THE PICK:  Florida 31, South Carolina 18

=== ============================= === ==== === ==

¹⁹Mississipi State at ¹²Alabama, 6:15p CDT, ESPN2

A lot has been surrounding the State program in the last few weeks.  They’ve lost a teammate to cancer and they’ve unleashed the craziest football scandal, probably ever.  EVAAR!  And, they find themselves in November with a healthy #19 national ranking.  When this 2010 season started, I said that State would be a team that you couldn’t sleep on in a year or two.  Looks like they decided to do it now.

I’m not sure Alabama is physical enough to stop the run…especially on EVERY play.  I thought the tackling looked improved in the 1^st half last week against LSU; not sure what happened in the 2^nd half.  But the Tide can’t stop this week because State’s not going to stop running the ball.

Defensively, State has been solid all year.  And if this game was at home, I’d be certain of an upset.

My fear is that Alabama, like in 2007 after a crushing LSU loss, won’t totally show up because their goals are unattainable.  The talent is there to crush the Bulldogs.  But do they want it?  State does, no doubt.

RB Trent Richardson will be very limited in this game.  My hope is that Mark Ingram will get enough carries to remind us that he is the reigning Heisman trophy winner.  If Alabama gets mean on the OL and commits to running the football and actually opens up some lanes for Ingram, I say there is no way Alabama will lose this game.

But that remains to be seen…

Alabama will handle the surging Bulldogs.  The leading receiver, Julio Jones would be the leading rusher.  The leading rusher, Mark Ingram, would be the leading receiver.  And Marquis Maze would have a breakout game and show the nation that he’s ready to be a star in 2011.  The defense would improve and Robert Lester would revert back to early season form and intercept 2 passes.

THE PICK: Mississipi State 27, Alabama 21 Alabama 30, Mississipi St 10

Florida @ Vanderbilt

This game was never close.

QB John Brantley broke his TD-less game streak and, for good measure, tossed 2 TD passes.  Freshman Jordan Reed led the team in rushing (16, 84, 1) and also had a nice day at QB completing 11 of 19 attempts for 120 yards with a TD and an INT.  Seriously, he or Trey Burton will be the QB next year.  That’s my gut feeling.

WR Chris Rainey is making up for lost time.  He led the team in receiving (4, 75, 1) and blocked 2 kicks.  With a healthy Jeff Demps (whenever he gets back) this Florida team has established some pretty potent weapons.

Vanderbilt just continues to struggle.  The Commodores get zero production from the QB position and the running game has been struggling the last few weeks.  Star RB Warren Norman is out with a broken wrist.  For the North Alabama readers, freshman WR Jordan Matthews (former Madison Academy standout) caught at 6 yard TD pass with less than a minute in the game.

All this game did for Florida is get them in a good offensive rhythm leading into the South Carolina game.  Vandy just licks its wounds again and prepares for next week.

PLAYER WATCH

Warren Norman – DNP; injured

Mike Gillislee – 9 rushes, 57 yards, 2 TDs

Ron Powell – 2 Tackles, PBU

LOOKING FORWARD

Florida host South Carolina to decide the SEC East championship.

Vanderbilt travels to Kentucky.

=== ======================== === ====

Idaho State @ Georgia

After a slow start in 1^st quarter (2 FGs), Georgia unleashed 35 points of fury on the Idaho State Bengals.  QB Aaron Murray played a typical Aaron Murray game completing 19 of 27 passes for 228 yards and 3 TDs.  Every capable runner got a chance to run the ball and AJ Green put up some big numbers while every capable WR caught passes.

The defense allowed 39 yards rushing and 112 passing while intercepting 3 passes.

Georgia should be fresh and confident heading into auburn this weekend.

PLAYER WATCH

Orson Charles – 3 receptions, 33 yards

Branden Smith – 3 rushes, 27 yards/ 1PR, 40 yards/ 1 PBU

LOOKING FORWARD

Georgia travels to auburn to continue the Deep South’s Oldest Rivalry…or whatever it’s called.

=== ====================== === ====

Charleston Southern @ Kentucky

Charleston Southern kept things interesting for a while; matching TDs with Kentucky until about 3 minutes left in the 1^st half.

A pair of sophomore RBs, Donald Russell (5’11, 209) and CoShik Williams (5’9, 180) led the way on the ground attack:  10 rushes, 110 yards, 2TDs (Russell); 13 rushes, 95 yards, 3TDs (Williams).

WRs Randall Cobb and Chris Matthews led all WRs with 101 and 92 yards (respectively).

The offense rolled up 502 yards and defense allowed only 269 yards.

Kentucky is a win away from 5 consecutive bowls and Vanderbilt and Tennessee are the remaining teams.

PLAYER WATCH

Randall Cobb – 4 receptions, 101 yards, 1TD/1PR, 13 yards/2KR, 35 yards

Taylor Wyndham – 1 Tackle

LOOKING FORWARD

Kentucky hosts Vanderbilt

=== ============================= === ===

UT-Chattanooga @ auburn

As predicted, auburn cruised and UTC put up some decent numbers on the auburn defense.

I guess the only thing I’ll say about the Newton situation is that auburn must be pretty confident that he’s in the clear to play him amid all the smoke.  OR, they figure this is the best chance in the foreseeable future to win a National Championship and are…ALL IN.

Anyway, I had to sit Cameron Newton on my fantasy team because I didn’t him to be a distraction.  And then I got nervous about letting 317 yards on 15/21 passing, 4 TDs and 24 yards on 8 rushes and a TD go to waste.  (Because you are curious: The guy that replaced Newton on my fantasy roster, Nevada QB Colin Kaepernick, scored a few more fantasy points than Newton, so it looks like I made the right decision by sitting him.  I guess we’ll find out if auburn made a mistake by playing him.)

RB Mario Fannin probably gained some confidence by rushing for 96 yards and 2 TDs on 8 carries

WRs Terrell Zachery (7 receptions, 148 yards, 1TD) and Darvin Adams (4, 106, 2) felt what it was like to play for a team that passes.

Looking at some game stats, it looks like most of the starters didn’t get a lot of action in this game.  But I have to believe the Mocs would have still churned out close to the 334 yards (233 passing and 101 rushing) that they earned Saturday.

Oh, and…McCalebbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbb!!

PLAYER WATCH

Michael Dyer – 4 rushes, 76 yards, 1TD

Corey Lemonier – QBH

LOOKING FORWARD

auburn hosts Georgia.

=== ============================= === ====

Alabama @ LSU

The Hat was at it again.  Eating grass on the sidelines, running fake punts and reverses on 4^th and 1.  Trailing at the half, he looked right into the camera, smiled his crazy smile and said, “We’re right where we want to be.”  I’m sure a lot of Alabama people laughed at him, called him a name or two, but deep down…they probably believed him.

It was kind of the same story for Alabama.  Not a lot of protection for the QB, defensive breakdowns and ZERO pass rush.  The sack on McElroy was a backbreaker.  The 98304940 yard pass to WR Ruben Randle on 3^rd and 13 was the death knell.  I mean, if CB Demarcus Milliner had covered Randle (instead of watching him run by) there is a 50/50 chance that QB Jarrett Lee completes that pass to the guy in Crimson and not the guy in White.  Instead…it was on the money and Randle did a series of freaky looking lateral jukes and avoided 900 tackles.

WR Julio Jones (10 receptions, 89 yards, TD) had his way with CB extraordinaire, Patrick Peterson.  RB Mark Ingram (14 rushes, 97 yards, TD) had a pretty good game, but not an exciting one.  I still say he needs at least 20 rushes per game.  RB Trent Richardson (I was SURE his leg was broke on that goal line tackle) never really got back in the game after Peterson did all he could to stop that TD reception.

The 1^st half tackling was great.  Then I’m not sure what happened.

DL Drake Nevis lived in the Alabama backfield and was unblockable.  And despite having an injury every 3.4 seconds (which took 2 starters out of the secondary) LSU kept on trucking along with the SEC’s best defense.

Both Jordan Jefferson and Jarrett Lee looked terrific Saturday.  I don’t want to take anything away from them, but the Alabama secondary probably had something to do with that.

The Hat out coached Nick Saban and LSU outplayed Alabama.  I bet practice is going to SUCK for Alabama this week.

PLAYER WATCH

AJ McCarron – DNP…sadly

CJ Mosley – 9 tackles, 1 TFL

Ruben Randle – 3 receptions, 125 yards, 1TD

Craig Loston – 1 Tackle

LOOKING FORWARD

Alabama hosts a hungry Mississipi State team that had the week off and is mourning the death of DE Nick Bell.  I’m not sure I like that combo.

LSU hosts Louisiana-Monroe.

=== ============================== === ===

Louisiana-Lafayette @ Ole Miss

This was the Brandon Bolden show (see stats below).  He completely dominated this game.

Like many other teams in the SEC playing crappy OOC opponents, Ole Miss played a lot of young guys and got some experience.

QB Nathan Stanley (SO) had a decent day, going 6/14 and 108 yards.  Junior RB Enrique Davis had 116 yards on 19 rushes and freshman Charles Sawyer intercepted a pass.

Hopefully, the Tennessee game this week will be a little better.

PLAYER WATCH

Brandon Bolden – 18 rushes, 136 yards, 2 TD/ 4 receptions, 80 yards, 1TD

DT Shackleford – 1 tackle, QBH

LOOKING FORWARD

Ole Miss travels to Knoxville, TN.

=== ============================ === ===

Arkansas @ South Carolina

Before this game, Carolina was sitting at 5-3.  They started the season 2-2 and then upset then #1, Alabama.  And all of a sudden they were a legit team.  Since the Alabama upset, the Gamecocks are 2-2 (5-4 on the season) and a win away from representing the SEC East in Atlanta.  But are they really even that good, or did everyone get so excited after they practiced for Alabama for two straight weeks and looked phenomenal in victory?

I’m sure I even pumped some sunshine for them, but after watching them for the last few weeks, I really don’t think they are that good.

Arkansas came into Columbia and quickly put 7 on the board.  At halftime, Carolina was down 24-10 and never got any closer.

QB Stephan Garcia was pedestrian (14/29, 161, 1TD, 2INTs) and RB Marcus Lattimore was shut down (see stats below).  WR Alshon Jeffery (7, 99) had a pretty decent day, but never found in the endzone.

The Carolina defense gave up 443 yards (303 passing, 140 rushing).  Not good.  Especially at home.

Arkansas QB Ryan Mallett turned in another 300+ yard passing game.  Sophomore WR Cobi Hamilton picked up the slack for injured star Greg Childs with a 7 reception, 111 yards, 1TD performance.  And as predicted, sophomore RB Knile Davis ran for 110 yards and 3TDs on 22 rushes.

The Razorback offense completed dominated this ball game; which means Carolina has major problems going into the Swamp Saturday.

PLAYER WATCH

Ronnie Wingo – 6 rushes, 18 yards

DJ Williams – 5 receptions, 67 yards

Marcus Lattimore – 11 rushes, 30 yards/ 1 reception, 10 yards

DeVonte Holloman – 4 tackles, INT (13 yards)

LOOKING FORWARD

Arkansas hosts UTEP.

South Carolina travels to the Swamp.

=== ======================== === ===

Tennessee @ Memphis

The worst in the SEC travelled East for a showdown against the worst in C-USA.

I would have loved to have seen/heard the faces and thoughts of Tennessee fans around the world as Memphis marched right down the field and took an early 7-0 lead.

Whatever feelings they had, it didn’t last long as Tennessee rattled off 50 unanswered points until about minute was left in the game.

Freshman QB Tyler Bray started his first collegiate game Saturday and gave Vol fans everywhere a glimpse into the future.  Bray completed 19 of 33 passes for 325 yards and 5 TDs.  That’s impressive – even if it WAS against Memphis (and NO, that’s not a backhanded compliment).

RB Tauren Poole continued his solid junior campaign by rushing for 101 yards and a TD on 16 carries.  Senior WR Denarius Moore caught 6 passes for 103 and a TD.

The Vol defense grabbed 3 INTs and held the Memphis Tigers to 308 yards (244 passing, 64 rushing).  Watch out, 3 more wins and the Volunteers are Bowl eligible.

PLAYER WATCH

Justin Hunter – 1 reception, 42 yards, 1TD

Corey Miller – 1 tackle

LOOKING FORWARD

Tennessee hosts Ole Miss.

Brian’s want for Kentucky to be be able to be on the side of victory has put a hindrance on his want and ability to be able to, to the best of his abilities, choose a score based upon the past reflections and analyses befitting of a favorable outcome on a weekly basis.  I think that it is my belief that his overall record for the season, as a whole, does not reflect his want to correctly pick those games that would put his record in the best light because of his choosing of Kentucky in many different circumstances so far during this season of football.

Last Week:

South Carolina 31, Tennessee 13 [Actual Score:  38 – 24 S Carolina]

Georgia 24, Florida 19 [Actual Score: 34-31 Florida] X

auburn 35, Ole Miss 26 [Actual Score: 51-31 auburn]

Kentucky 28, Miss State 25 [Actual Score: 24-17 Miss State] X

Arkansas 35, Vanderbilt 14 [Actual Score: 49-14 Arkansas]

Week:  3-2

Season: 48-19 (72%)

=== ===== =============

Florida at Vanderbilt, 11:21a CDT, SEC Network

This ought to be a gem…

I can’t even believe this is televised, but looking at some of the other SEC opponents (Idaho St, Charleston St, UT-Chattanooga), I can understand it being on TV.

Florida (supposedly) fixed some problems during the bye week and came out guns a ‘blazing last week against Georgia.  The Gators should be able to sleep walk through this game as Vandy seems to be getting worse.

Vanderbilt could probably run the ball a little bit against Florida and will probably have some success early in the game.  But once they get in a hole, they’ll need to pass and can’t.  The ARKANSAS defense limited QB Larry Smith to less than 40 yards passing last week.  I can’t imagine those aggressive Gator DBs allowing MORE than that.

The biggest issue in this game for Florida is finishing without injuries.  RB Chris Rainey is back from suspension and healthy and should provide some flash down the stretch for the Gator offense.

I’m going to go out on a limb here and say that QB John Brantley throws his first TD pass in over a month.  Meanwhile, freshman jackknife, Trey Burton will continue to make his case why he should be the starting QB next year as he is putting together an impressive freshman season.

With the biggest game in the SEC East coming up next weekend (S Carolina @ Florida) I can see Florida getting that lead early and resting their key players.

THE PICK: Florida 45, Vanderbilt 9

=== ========================== ===

Idaho State at Georgia, 11:30a CDT, ESPN3

Out of 117 FCS teams, Idaho St is almost touching the bottom in both total offense and defense.

One guy to watch is junior RB Tavoy Moore (5’7, 195).  He’s like their Dexter McCluster or Randall Cobb.  Here is his resume:

• 38 rushes, 180 yards
• 27 receptions, 323 yards, TD
• 28 KORs, 771 yards, 2 TDs
• 13 PRs, 262 yards, 2 TDs

To put those return numbers in prospective, if Tavoy Moore were an FBS player, he’d be the 5^th best KO returner based on yardage gained and the 19^th best in average.  For punt returns, he’d be the tied for the 6^th best in return yards, and tied for 3^rd best in return average. [Weird stat: Tavoy Moore has the exact same number of punt returns and yardage as Southern Cal WR Ronald Johnson.  Moore has 1 more punt return for a TD.  Odd.]

The top two WR targets are sophomore Roderick Rumble (6’2, 190) who has good size and has caught 24 passes for 328 yards and 2 TDs.  The other is Moore.

The Bengal defense is led by two junior LBs, Basim Hudeen (5’10, 230) and AJ Storms (6’0, 215).  They are both tackling machines (70 and 99, respectively).  Also of note; senior DB Chris Holmsley (5’9, 193) who has 78 tackles and 2 INTs.

Georgia is coming off a tough OT loss against rival Florida.  This is a tune up game for the Bulldogs as they prepare and continue to improve for their date with auburn next week.

This game should help Georgia at least prepare for kicking to Demond Washington, which would be stupid.

THE PICK: Georgia 45, Idaho State 13

=== ============================= ===

Charleston Southern at Kentucky, 11:30a CDT, ESPN3

Charleston Southern has a middle offense the FCS and one of the worst defenses.  Their bread and butter is passing (16^th overall in FCS), lead by senior WR Gerald Stevenson (5’10, 165).  On the year he has 643 yards on 87 receptions and 4 TDs.  He’s also a very dangerous KO returner, averaging 38 yards per return (12, 458 yards, 3 TDs).  His average of 38 ypr would lead the FBS.

The Buccaneers have a handful of other WRs that they like to spread the ball around to and all of them have at least 20 receptions on the year and average another 300 yards between the three of them.

The defense is lead by two LBs, Chris Patrick (6’0, 218) and Fred Godfrey (5’11, 225).  Patrick and Godfrey lead the team in tackles (63 and 50, respectively), are tied for the lead in TFL (7.5) and each have intercepted at least on pass.

Kentucky is coming off another tough loss to Mississipi State and could possibly win out (Vanderbilt, @Tennessee) after gaining some confidence and momentum in this game.

I would expect that Charleston Southern would be able to move the ball a little bit through the air against the Wildcat defense, but it won’t be nearly enough, as Kentucky has way too much talent for the a terrible FCS defense to defend.

THE PICK: Kentucky 42, Charleston Southern 18

=== =============================== ===

UT-Chattanooga at ²auburn, 12:00p CDT, ESPN3

Chattanooga is a pretty good FCS team with a roster littered with SEC talent, but it won’t be enough to pull the auburn upset.  Alabama steamrolled the Mocs on the way to the National Championship about this time last year and auburn looks to do the same.

UTC is led by junior QB and Tennessee transfer, BJ Coleman (6’5, 220).  He leads the #8 FCS offense and has a few decent playmakers around him.  For the 2010 season, Coleman has completed 168/289 passes for 2,257 yards, 21 TDs and 12 INTS.  For some perspective, 2,257 yards would rank 14^th in the FBS and 21 TDs would be good enough for a 4^th place tie.  He is a legitimate QB and would be a star at Tennessee right now and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him throw the ball around a little on auburn’s secondary.

The Mocs leading WRs are junior Joel Bradford (6’0, 165) and Brian Southerland (5’10, 175).  Bradford leads the FCS with 1027 receiving yards (3^rd in FBS) on 66 (T4^th in FBS) receptions and 7 TDs (T8^th in FBS).  The fact that he’s 165 lbs and he’s still putting up those numbers is crazy!  He’s either ridiculous at getting open or the system he plays in allows him to be that open.  By the way, Bradford has gone OFF his last two games:  15 receptions, 274 yards, TD and 11, 152, 2.

Southerland is a nice compliment to Bradford and also runs on the 4×100 relay team at UTC (how’s THAT for some research!) and has 436 yards on 33 receptions for 2 TDs.

The UTC defense is led by former Tennessee junior LB Chris Donald (6’1, 225); he plays DE for the Mocs and has 42 tackles on the season, 11 TFL (60 yards) and 7 sacks (44 yards).  There aren’t many FBS that couldn’t use some production like that!

Junior Ryan Consiglio (6’1, 215) leads the team with 91 tackles and sophomore DE Joshua Williams (6’3, 230) is also very productive on the DL with 24 tackles, 6 TFL (25 yards) and 4.5 sacks (23).

The Moc secondary features freshman DB Kadeem Wise (5’10, 170) who leads the team (and the FSC) with 6 INTs and junior S Jordan Tippit (6’0, 205) has 2 INTs.  For the North Alabama crowd, Jordan Tippit and South Carolina transfer, WR Jarrett Burns are from Buckhorn HS and Lee HS (respectively).

On offense, auburn should be too much for the UTC defense.  Only a handful of players have seen the size and speed that auburn will put on the field.  But they do have legit FBS size across the board on defense and will challenge the auburn passing game.

If the Moc line can account for Nick Fairley, BJ Coleman might be able to do some damage to the auburn secondary.  The Moc RB, senior Erroll Wynn (his parent’s have a sense of humor) at 5’11, 215 has some bulk.

auburn should cruise, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Chattanooga move the ball a little bit early in the game.

THE PICK: auburn 49, Chattanooga 17

=== ============================== ===

⁶Alabama at ¹⁰LSU, 2:30p CDT, CBS

To say this game is huge is an understatement.  And as a Bama fan, that has me nervous on 2 levels: 1) the LSU is always pretty tough, given the back stories with Coach Saban and what not.  That nervousness is there every year and is nothing new.  2) Even though auburn is in the driver’s seat for the BCS NC game, I keep reading bowl projections and listening to all these talking heads that keep putting Oregon vs Alabama or Boise St vs Alabama in the NC game.  Alabama isn’t quite a long shot to make the NC game, but they definitely have some work to do…yet they are still in the headlines and that is my fear.  I truly hope this young team learned from earlier in the season that you cannot overlook anyone…especially a game that is 3 weeks away!

The fact that Alabama is going to travel into Death Valley and play a majority of this game while the sun is still in the sky is huge.  HUGE.  It will still be loud, just not drunken loud.  But since the game is played on the field, I expect this one to be a pretty close one.

Alabama is coming off a great offensive 2nd half against Tennessee, although I do wonder how that translates against LSU’s defense (best in the SEC).  Can the OL block a stout LSU DL?  Can someone besides Julio Jones (who will probably be covered by CB guru, Patrick Peterson) get open and make some plays?  Last year, Alabama went into the LSU game with similar offensive problems; even Greg McElroy was scraping the bottom of the barrel of his performance slide.  The Tide came out chucking the ball all over the field and seemed to shake away their offensive woes.

LSU’s offensive problems have been viewed and discussed ad nauseum.  I can’t imagine a bye week would solve those problems either.  Alabama will have to account for RB Stevan Ridley.  He leads the SEC in rushing (by RBs) and he will be looking to take advantage of Alabama’s run defense problems.  LSU has two terrific WRs in Terrance Toliver and Ruben Randle, but as long as QB Jordan Jefferson is under Center, I can’t imagine they will be a big play threat until (unless) the game gets to crunch time.

Any game that has the probability of being a low scoring and close causes concern for me when the Hat is on the other sideline.  Throw in the home field advantage and it makes me nervous.  Alabama’s probably a better team but has A LOT riding on this game and I wonder if the youth shows up again Saturday afternoon.

THE PICK:  Alabama 24, LSU 22

=== ============================ ===

Louisiana-Lafayette at Ole Miss, 6:00p CDT, ESPNU

The Cajuns haven’t won since October 2^nd against the Mean Green of North Texas.  Since then, Western Kentucky snapped their losing streak in a win over Lafayette October 23^rd.

Not much D.  Not much O.  They do have an NFL talent at TE, Ladarius Green (25 receptions, 437 yards, 4 TDS), who is their leading receiver.

Ole Miss travels to Knoxville next week, so I would expect them to try to keep people healthy and try to work on some things.

THE PICK: Ole Miss 42, Louisiana-Lafayette 23

=== ============================ ===

¹⁸Arkansas at ¹⁹South Carolina, 6:00p CDT, ESPN

Marquee Game #2 in the SEC for Week 10.  Arkansas is playing for a higher bowl and Carolina is playing to keep its SEC East hopes alive.  With the game that will ultimately decide their fate coming up next week, against Florida, Carolina had best not be overlooking the Razorbacks.  (Note: Carolina can still lose this game and beat Florida and still be SEC East champs…so basically, they need to beat Florida no matter what.)

Arkansas will be without super WR Greg Childs.  But the rest of their collection of top end WRs will have no problem in his absence.  Ryan Mallett is on a tear and must be licking his chops against Carolina’s spotty secondary, a group that only has 4 INTs on the year).  And don’t sleep on RB Knile Davis, he’s really been pouring it on the last few weeks.

If this game goes into shoot out mode, I think Carolina can keep pace.  Arkansas’s defense turned out to be no better than in years past.  WR Alshon Jeffery can stretch the field as good as anyone and RB Marcus Lattimore has few peers running the ball, even as a freshman.

Points will be a plenty in this game (I think…last week showed I know nothing).  Carolina has more to play for, but they also have a bigger game next week.  That combo usually spells, TRAP.

THE PICK: Arkansas 35, S Carolina 31

=== ================================= ===

Tennessee at Memphis, 7:00p CDT

Hello pillow fight.  Tennessee will remember what it feels like to win since all the way back on September 25 when an overtime bomb to the endzone clinched a victory over another middling Conference USA team, UAB.

The only people interested in this game will be Tennessee fans, wishing, hoping, praying for some momentum going into the Ole Miss game…and no more injuries.

THE PICK: Tennessee 28, Memphis 12

Him:  What does your pin mean?

Her:  That I’m a fan of Nick Saban.

Him:  Who’s that? (He couldn’t have been more earnest in asking this question)

Her: (dumbfounded) Nick…Saban.  The head coach of Alabama’s football team.

Him: Oh, okay.  Yall need a bag for this?

I’m just standing there staring at him.  Staring at him like he just told me he had never heard of Jesus (let’s see if the auburn fans make that analogy more than it should be).   And he said, “Oh, okay” the same way I would respond if you began breaking down the best defensemen of all time in hockey; like not only was clueless, he was completely disinterested.  Which, is fine, and no, I’m not confounded that he didn’t know MY TEAM’S COACH.  My wife believes she could pass a random person on the street and say; Pete Carroll, Nick Saban and Urban Meyer – who are they? And even if they didn’t know what teams they coached, the random person would know they were football coaches, at least.  At least!!

I mean, we were in KNOXVILLE, TENNESSEE; a major football college town.  There was a football game THE NIGHT BEFORE less than 2 MILES from his gas station!!  I bet he didn’t even know that.  And I get it, not everyone likes football; but I wonder if he was getting robbed if it would go something like this:

Him:  What’s that metal thing you’re point at me?

Robber: Um, a gun.  NOW GIVE ME THE MONEY!

Him:  Oh, what does it do?

If he had asked who Derek Dooley or Joker Phillips was, I wouldn’t have been caught off guard.  I just refuse to believe that at no point in the last 10 years he hadn’t flipped by a channel on TV and NOT have seen the name Nick Saban.  But I guess that’s assuming those hillbilly’s up in Knoxville have TVs…  Ba-zing!

I keed, I keed!

==== ===================== =====

Tennessee @ South Carolina

Well, I was half right with my prediction.  The game never got completely out of hand (well, unless you consider 14 points a close game), but after Tennessee tied the game at 24 early in the 4^th quarter, they never came close to the endzone again.

Tennessee did a lot of good things in this game. They passed the ball well, they caught the ball well, they ran the ball decently, they scored every quarter…they gave themselves a chance to win against a pretty good S Carolina team.  But the turnovers (3 fumbles and an INT) and the lack of depth are hard to overcome.

The Vols kicked off to Carolina and then intercepted QB Stephan Garcia in the endzone for a touchback and then marched down the field on a 14 play, 9 minute drive that ended in a field goal and a 3-0 lead on the road.

But here are 4 plays that killed Tennessee:

• On their 2^nd possession of the game, QB Matt Simms is sacked and fumbled (coming out of a timeout) on the SC 12 yard line. (Game tied 3-3.  The fumble lead to a TD)
• On the 1^st possession of the 2^nd half, Simms is sacked and fumbled again (2^nd play of the drive) on the UT 29 yard line.  (Game tied 10-10.  The fumble led to a TD).
• On the 2^nd possession of the 2^nd half, QB Tyler Bray throws an interception from the UT 20 (also the 2^nd play of the drive) that is returned for a TD.  (SC up 17-10.  Pick 6)
• With 3 minutes left in the 3^rd quarter Tennessee forces SC to punt.  The return was fumbled on the UT 17 yard line.  (SC up 24-17.  UT defense held and SC missed a FG).

I know ALL turnovers are bad, but these 4 came at terrible, terrible moments in the game for UT.  1 was in the red zone early in the game that would have put UT up 10-0.  2 were in the shadow of the UT endzone that came early in the drive and 1 fumbled punt inside the UT 20.  When the defense can’t consistently bail you out, it hurts when you give the opposing team 21 points.

Tennessee’s offense had a field day through the air against the Carolina defense.  Especially senior WR Denarius Moore – 6 receptions (SIX) for 228 yards and a TD.  To me, that’s impressive, because the week before he was absolutely CRUSHED by Alabama CB DeMarcus Milliner in the 1^st quarter and never returned, so I guess he made up for it in this game.  But for the 2^nd game in a row, WR Justin Hunter was held without a catch.  The running game never really got going, despite 37 attempts (92 yards).  RB Tauren Poole only gained 33 yards on 16 carries after gashing the Alabama defense only a week prior.

Carolina unleashed freshman RB Marcus Lattimore (stats below).  He is a monster and Carolina’s fate lies in his ability to churn out yards and the clock for the rest of the season.  The passing game was sparse (22 attempts, 13 completions) but when Lattimore is gaining 6 yards a pop, why throw it?  Alshon Jeffery caught 3 passes for 87 yards and a TD.

The punt return was probably avoidable (fielded on the 17…fair catch, maybe?).  The two sacks were probably due to an inexperienced line facing a ferocious pass rushing team, but you have to protect inside your own 20!  And it isn’t surprising that a freshman QB would make a bad read inside his own 20 for pick 6 (that’s the problem with playing true freshman QBs).  I didn’t see one second of this game, but from parsing through the stats, it looks like UT outplayed a top 20 Carolina team on the road and probably would have won comfortably if it weren’t for 3 easy TDs off of turnovers.

PLAYER WATCH

Justin Hunter – No Stats

Corey Miller – 1 tackle

Marcus Lattimore –29 rushes, 184 yards, TD/2 receptions, 26 yards

DeVonte Holloman – 3 tackles, 1 fumble recovery

LOOKING FORWARD

Tennessee travels to Memphis for win #3.  Actually, the Vols still have an outside shot of becoming bowl eligible with games against Ole Miss, @Vanderbilt and against Kentucky left on the schedule.  Those ALL look winnable and if UT plays like they did against SC, they very well could win out.  It all starts with some confidence in Memphis.

Carolina hosts cross-divisional rival, Arkansas (I guess they are rivals because they were last 2 teams in the SEC?  Sounds like a stupid rivalry).  But this is a big time trap game.  Carolina has a 1 game lead over Florida for the top spot in the SEC East.  Who does SC play the week after Arkansas?  Florida.  Draaaaamaaaaa!

=== ============================ =====

Florida vs Georgia

Man, I didn’t get to watch 1 second of this one either and it looks like I missed a great one.  Looks like I was completely wrong on my analysis.  Turns out, Florida DID actually work on stuff during the bye week and the turnover trend went against Georgia.  Badly.

In the 2^nd SEC game of the day, things started sour for one team.  Georgia received the opening kickoff and on the first play of the game, QB Aaron Murray throws an INT from his own 29 yard line and the turnover led to a missed FG attempt.

On the 2^nd possession of the 2^nd quarter, Murray is sacked and fumbled on the FLA 41 yard line with the score tied 7-7 and the turnover resulted in a Florida TD.  On the very next Georgia possession, Murray throws an INT.  Florida scores on two plays to go up 21-7.

In overtime, Murray throws another INT on the 7 yard line and it gets returned 89 yards, all the way down to the UGA 4 yard line before Florida S Will Hill is tackled.  But Florida kicks a FG to win in their OT possession.

So I don’t know what to make of this game based upon the stats.  I guess I need to know how bad these passes were that Florida intercepted.  But the offensive display by both teams is undeniable.

Georgia had a hard time running the ball (34 rushes, 126 yards, 1 TD), but found WRs aplenty.  TE Orson Charles had a monster game (stats below), as did Tavarres King (3 receptions, 104 yards, TD).  AJ Green was largely held in check until 7 minutes left in the game when he caught a 15 yard pass for a TD (42 yards on 4 receptions in total).

Florida has been missing RB Chris Rainey all year. His first game back from suspension couldn’t have come at a better time (16 rushes, 84 yards, TD).  Tim Burton led all rushers with 110 yards on 17 rushes and 2 TDs.   The more John Brantley lines up at QB this year and averages 18/29, 180 yards a game, I believe more and more than Tim Burton will be the starting QB in 2011.  He does everything pretty well (runs, throws, blocks, catches, decoys) and Brantley really doesn’t do anything well.  [Interesting note: Brantley hasn’t thrown a TD pass since the Kentucky game (week 4), or put another way, Brantley didn’t throw a TD pass in the month of October.   He has thrown an INT in every game since week 4.]  So my question is this:  What does Brantley do with his last year of eligibility?

For one week, Florida has things turned around.  Georgia’s feelings have to be hurt by this one.  Turnovers spoiled a pretty good day offensively.

PLAYER WATCH

Mike Gillislee – DNP

Ron Powell – 3 tackles

Orson Charles – 6 receptions, 108 yards, TD – finally, he stopped making me look stupid!

Branden Smith – 2 tackles, INT/ 2PR, 14 yards

LOOKING FORWARD

Florida travels to Vanderbilt to continue working out their kinks before the home stretch of their schedule: South Carolina (which will probably decide the East), Appalachian State, @Florida State.

Georgia hosts Idaho State, which I hope is Homecoming, or the game to rest starters and work on upsetting auburn.

=== ============================== === ====

¹auburn @ Ole Miss

I missed the first 2 scores of this game and then probably missed everything after Michael Dyers long TD run.

Wrong again with my analysis.

So it looks like auburn is saving Newton’s legs for the two big ones at the end of the year (Georgia and Alabama) and we all found out that, yes, Newton cam actually throw the ball (see what I did there?  Blah, I feel like an auburn cam…I mean fan <shudder> by finding any possible word that could be turned into a cute tribute to Newton.  Before he came long, it was finding any adjective that had an “A” before the “U” and capitalizing them, example: The longer auburn remains at #1, Alabama’s schedule is setting up for an AUspicious National Title run which would slAUghter the tiger’s dream season.) Anyway, enough of the childish wordplay and back to football.

So after 9 weeks of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory (Miss St and Clemson) and winning because of a stupid coaching decision (South Carolina) and then wiping the field with every other opponent, I guess I have to give auburn Cameron Newton his due.   He’s pretty unstoppable.

[Quick fantasy football story: Early in the college fantasy season, I picked up Newton and Denard Robinson from Michigan just so no one else would have them and I stashed them on my bench (my starter was the Nevada QB).  Well, Newton began putting up 50 point weeks and after a while I decided that it would be stupid to leave a guy getting 50+ points a week on my bench, so much to my displeAsUre, I made him my starter.  So, thanks Cameron Newton…although I must point out that I would have still remained undefeated without the extra 15 or so points he adds to my point total; so unlike auburn, I really don’t need him on my TEAM to be successful. Ba-zing!]

Anyway, as has been pointed out by a lot of media people, the auburn OL is probably the MVP of the team.  They keep DEs and LBs away from Newton and let him throw is 9 completions a game and they make gaping holes for Dyer and McCalebbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbb to run through.  And those two RBs had a remarkable game against Ole Miss.  Dyer (stats below) and McCalebbbbbbbbbbbb (9 rushes, 99 yards, TD) have turned into a dynamic duo and I guess if McCalebbbbbbbb runs by everyone and never gets hit, he’ll never get hurt.  Dyer has been impressive the last several games.  If he keeps up this pace, he and Lattimore will only be around for 2 more years.

Emory Blake is rounding into a nice looking WR for auburn.  Newton got involved in all the fun and caught a pass from former QB Kodi Burns.

Demond Washington has got to be scary to Special Team Coordinators.  Why do people kick to him?

Okay, that’s enough auburn praise.  [Vomits]

McCalebbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbb!

Ole Miss just didn’t make enough plays.  Or enough defensive stops.  Masoli didn’t do nearly enough (20/33, 189 yards, 1TD, 1INT) to pull the upset.  Freshman RB Jeff Scott turned in a killer performance, rushing for 134 yards on 9 carries and adding in a TD.  The auburn defense can be run on (218 yards and 3TDs), but I think Masoli’s mobility had a lot to do with that.

The Ole Miss defense didn’t make any plays to turn the ball over.  This performance might have been enough to beat 5 of the 6 East teams.

PLAYER WATCH

Michael Dyer – 21 rushes, 180 yards, TD

Corey Lemonier – 2 tackles, 1 TFL (4 yards)

Brandon Bolden – 6 rushes, 32 yards, 2 TDs/1 reception, 9 yards

DT Shackleford – 6 tackles, 1 TFL (2)

LOOKING FORWARD

auburn will make me choose between Denard Robinson or Colin Kaepernick at QB this week as they host UT-Chattanooga.  Surely, Newton won’t play more than a quarter and a half.

Ole Miss hosts UL-Lafayette in a chance to get a step closer to bowl eligibility.  It could happen and don’t laugh, but the visit to Tennessee could be the pivotal game.  Ole Miss is sitting at 3 wins; a win Saturday will be 4, which will mean they would only have to win 2 more:  @Tennessee (doable), @LSU(Houston Nutt owns Les Miles), hosts the Egg Bowl – Miss State (all bets are off).

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Vanderbilt @ ¹⁹Arkansas

Man, this game was ugly.  Vanderbilt had 36 passing yards, 8 first downs, averaged 3.8 yards a run, 2.1 yards a pass and was 1/11 on 3^rd down conversions.  Arkansas even game them 130 yards of field position on 13 penalties!

There’s really nothing to say about Vanderbilt other than they got in the way of the Arkansas offense a few times and forced 4 punts (somehow) and at some point, junior TE Brandon Barden scored a TD (he’s having a pretty solid year and would be a star on a better team, I think).  As bad as this game turned out, Vanderbilt led 14-6 after the 1^st quarter.

This game was good and bad for the Razorbacks.  The good:  Ryan Mallett was unconscious – 27-44, 409 yards, 3 TDs.  The bad:  Super WR Greg Childs (5 receptions, 87 yards) was lost for the season to injury.  Like everyone else has stated:  Why was he still in the game?

Arkansas isn’t short on play makers, but defenses HAVE TO account for Childs.  I guess this means the SEC West will see him again next year…at least Mallett won’t be throwing passes to him.

PLAYER WATCH

Ronnie Wingo – 6 rushes, 52 yards/ 5 receptions, 40 yards

DJ Williams – 4 receptions, 32 yards, 1TD

Warren Norman – 11 rushes, 64 yards/ 2KORs, 62 yards

LOOKING FORWARD

Vanderbilt has the joy of hosting the Florida Gators, fresh off the best game of their season.  I can’t imagine Vanderbilt having played worse than they did in this one.

Arkansas travels to Columbia, SC.  Arkansas has a tough slate remaining:  @ Carolina, UTEP, @ Miss St, LSU.

=== ================================ === ===

Kentucky @ ²¹Mississipi State

This was a close one.  And once again, turnovers reared their ugly head and put the squeeze on another upset.

Kentucky QB Mike Hartline had a miserable day against a tenacious State defense.  Kentucky’s defense bailed Hartline out after all of these turnovers, but couldn’t make enough plays to win the game.  If one of these passes isn’t a turnover, this game is very, very different.

• On a drive in the 2^nd quarter that started on the UK 35, Kentucky was putting together a nice 7 play drive and marching down the field when Hartline throws an INT at the MSt 33 (Chris White).  White then fumbles the ball during the return and is recovered by Mike Hartline.
• After Hartline recovers the fumbled interception, he throws ANOTHER ONE on 2 plays later in th endzone for a touchback (State up 17-7.  The turnover led to a punt)
• On the first possession in the 2^nd quarter, Kentucky fumbled on the UK 45.  (State led 17-10.  The fumble led to a punt)
• With 4:30 left in the game, trailing by a TD (24-17), amid a 17 play, 70 yard drive, Hartline throws an INT on the MSt 1 yard line. (State runs out the clock to win).

Kentucky is clearly missing RB Derrick Locke.  Freshman RB Raymond Sanders has been filling in pretty adequately, but he’s not Derrick Locke.  The last two games, Randall Cobb has been mainly relegated to WR and KR duties (stats below), but he’s been doing those extremely well.  And for all his troubles in this game (23-41, 258 yards, 2TD, 3INTS), Mike Hartline kept his team in the game.  The problem for Kentucky is that no one really stepped up outside of Cobb.

Mississipi State looks like they can handle success pretty well as they are working on a 6 game winning streak.

RB Vick Ballard just keeps adding to his resume.  In his first year in the SEC (he’s a junior) he’s accumulated 619 yards on 92 rushes for 12 TDs.  He gashed the Wildcat defense for 103 yards on 14 carries and a TD.  QB Chris Relf added 79 yards and a TD on 16 carries.  He also threw for 111 yards and a TD, completing 7 of 16 attempts.

State’s 2 red zone INTs proved to be the difference in the game, as they gave up 347 yards and allowed 24 first downs.

PLAYER WATCH

Chad Bumphis – 1 rush, 8 yards/2 receptions, 41 yards/4 PR, 44  yards/1KOR, 32 yards

James Carmon – 1 tackle

Randall Cobb – 5 rushes, 11 yards/12 receptions, 171 yards, TD/5 KOR, 111 yards

Taylor Wyndham – 3 tackles, .5 sack

LOOKING FORWARD

Kentucky is off next week to prepare for…Vanderbilt?

Mississipi State is off next week to prepare for Alabama.

Last week:

Arkansas 37, Ole Miss 26 [Actual Score:  38-24 Arkansas]

Auburn 36, LSU 27 [Actual Score: 24-17 auburn]

S Carolina 35, Vanderbilt 13 [Actual Score:  21-7 S Carolina]

Miss State 38, UAB 22 [Actual Score:  29-24]

Alabama 28, Tennessee 13 [Actual Score:  41-10]

Kentucky 35, Georgia 33 [Actual Score:  44-31 Georgia] X

Week:  5-1

Overall: 45-17 (73%)

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Tennessee at ²⁰South Carolina, 11:21a CDT, LF/JF/?

I’ve sat here trying to think of how a clever way to put how this game will go.  But I’m pretty sure for the rest of the season (@S Carolina, @Memphis, Ole Miss, and @Vanderbilt, Kentucky) you will be in every game until about the halfway point of the 3^rd quarter and then the game will slip away (except for maybe @Memphis and @Vanderbilt – but those are away games so I don’t know, they’ll be gunning for a down Tennessee team).

Tennessee made the mistake of selling out to stop the run (which it didn’t) and left Julio Jones in single press coverage with no safety help and he completely dismantled the UT secondary.  What in the world will be the game plan for Alshon Jeffery?  Tori Gurley?  You can’t double them both and you have to respect Marcus Lattimore, even if he is coming off an ankle injury.  Oh, and this game is in Columbia, where the Gamecocks are allowing just over 14 points a game this year…I’m not sure Tennessee have that many in them (scoring just over 13 points/game against SEC opponents).

As Alabama found out, Carolina is a good pass rushing team and the young Tennessee OL will hard-pressed to keep them out of the backfield; Matt Simms suffered a knee sprain in the Alabama game and Tyler Bray, while very competent, is 6’6, 210 and I can’t imagine he could take a beating with that size.

That’s not to say that Carolina can’t be scored on.  WR Justin Hunter will have to get some touches down the field or in space to make some plays and RB Tauren Poole will have to loosen up the secondary with some strong runs.

But Carolina has too many weapons on offense that are a terrible match up for Tennessee’s defense.  I think this one gets ugly, just like last week’s game against Alabama.

THE PICK: South Carolina 31, Tennessee 13

=== ========================== === ===

Florida vs Georgia, 2:30p CDT, CBS

I’m interested in this one just to see if Florida did anything during the last two weeks of practice to actually implement plays that fit the personnel they are using, or put another way, not play option football with a QB that doesn’t run well, or is big enough to take hits.  I keep reading about how Florida’s WRs aren’t the playmakers that have been there in the past, but I’m not sure I totally buy that.  I mean, these guys ARE great athletes and ARE just ridiculously fast and some of them, have (prior to 2010 mostly) made some big plays for Florida.

Bottom line for Florida (besides trying to be something they don’t have the players for) is that you don’t replace a Tim Tebow/Riley Cooper/OL guys on offense or a Brandon Spikes/Joe Haden/DE guys on defense and still expect to be incredible.  I won’t be surprised when Trey Burton is the full time QB next year and all these young guys on offense and defense are killing people again.

Wow, so back to this game.  Georgia is hot right now.  QB Aaron Murray is on fire and in looking at the stats, he’s comfortable getting the ball to Kris Durham (22 receptions, 453 yards), AJ Green (22, 365) and Tavarres King (18, 339) and every one of these guys are averaging at least 16 yards a catch.  Caleb King will be back from suspension and Washaun Ealey probably just scored another TD against Kentucky.  Offensively, I think Georgia is right where they need to be and I’d be nervous to be on their schedule.  Defensively, they might still be in transition, because Kentucky (which I think is a great offense) just absolutely gashed them last week.  But they might not have to be stellar to hang with Florida.  But check this out, in the last 3 games, Georgia has forced 9 turnovers (6 fumbles and 3 INTs) while only turning it over once (INT).  That’s going to be huge in this game if those stats continue to trend the Bulldogs way.

Florida has GOT to be better than they have been coming out of the bye week.  Surely they have a few plays that they can run with confidence and a few more to pull out of the bag at just the right time for a big play/score.  They aren’t scaring anyone with that offense…they put up  A TOUCHDOWN, ONE on Mississippi FREAKING State IN THE SWAMP!  On what planet does that happen (besides Earth, where we live)?

Anyway, I think Florida has too much to overcome.  They have to figure out what in the mess they are doing AND come up with a plan to contain Georgia.  Georgia has boatloads of momentum and, I believe, has the better team.

THE PICK: Georgia 24, Florida 19

=== ============================== === ===

¹auburn at Ole Miss, 5:00p CDT, ESPN2

Sure, some undefeated teams might get beat this weekend.  I just can’t believe auburn will be one of them.  Here’s what we know:

• auburn has struggled on the road (Miss St and Kentucky)
• Ole Miss beat one of those teams (Kentucky) but I can’t believe they are better than them
• Houston Nutt normally beats someone he shouldn’t: 2009:  #8 LSU (in Oxford), #19 Oklahoma St (Cotton Bowl), 2008:  #4 Florida (in Oxford), #18 LSU, #7 Texas Tech (Cotton Bowl)
• No DexterMcCluster, or one guy you ABSOLUTELY have to account for on offense

Okay, well after researching the Houston Nutt upsets at home while at Ole Miss, I’m coming around…

We all know what auburn will do Saturday.  Cameron Newton (by the way, have you heard he’s 6’6, 250?) left, right, up the middle, throw in a reverse, a few hand offs to Dyer and McCalebbbbbbbbbb and throw 11 passes and complete 7 of them for about 85 yards.  So far this season, that’s an unstoppable combo of plays.

One thing that might work in Ole Miss’s favor, somewhat, is that they see the same kind of offense every day in practice.  Although Jeremiah Masoli isn’t quite the player Newton is, he’s still pretty dynamic.  So the Ole Miss defense shouldn’t be completely out of sorts against auburn.  Another good matchup is auburn’s interior OL versus DT Jerrell Powe.  I can see him occupying a few guys inside and leaving a LB to roam free a little bit.

Ole Miss will have to play above their head most of the day Saturday.  Masoli will have to make plays with his arm and feet, RB Brandon Bolden will have to sustain drives and keep the auburn defense on the field.  They will also have to win the turnover battle.  But we all know what it will take.

As many angles as you could dream up as reasons auburn will lose Saturday, I just can’t believe any of them will come to fruition…barring Newton getting knocked out of the game.

THE PICK: auburn 35, Ole Miss 26

=== =========================== === ===

Kentucky at ²¹Mississipi State, 6:00p CDT, ESPNU

Since the auburn game will probably be a blow out and not nearly as close as my predicted score, I’ll probably be watching this game.

Kentucky says they are tired of losing and if it weren’t for so many turnovers (and maybe a healthy Derrick Locke) they would be at least 2 wins better than they are now.  Can they put it all together and pull an upset on the road to a confident and solid Miss State team?  How will State handle their newfound success?  I think those two questions drive this game.

In order to win this game, I don’t think Kentucky will have to play the game of their lives, but they can’t turn the ball over; that crushed them in the Georgia game last week.  Normally on the road, the away runs the ball and tries to control the clock.  I’m not sure Kentucky can use that strategy, but if they keep spreading the ball around to WRs Randall Cobb, Chris Matthews and LaRod King with the accuracy that QB Mike Hartline has displayed all season, I see no reason why they can’t come into Starkville and make some noise.

Miss State is going to run the football and be physical.  RB Vick Ballard (who missed the UAB game due to a sprained ankle) leads the SEC in rushing TDs (by a RB) with 11.  In his absence, LaDarius Perkins has really come on and throw in QB Chris Relf’s role in the running game and Kentucky has a lot to account for.

Can Kentucky slow down the State running game?  Can State slow down the Kentucky passing game?

THE PICK: Kentucky 28, Mississipi State 25

=== ===================================== === ===

Vanderbilt at ¹⁹Arkansas, 6:00p CDT, ESPN3

How long can Vanderbilt keep getting up for these games and scratch and claw until the 4^th quarter?  I don’t think Vandy is terrible, just short on talent.  The games they do well in are the games when they successfully get their RBs going.  Arkansas will be without a starting DT due to some drug charges.  But I don’t know if they can do enough to exploit a bad Arkansas defense.

QB Ryan Mallett and WR Greg Childs are banged up (bruised shoulder and turned ankle, respectively) and WR Joe Adams will be out.  So, good news for Vandy, that some bigtime play makers will be limited.  But it won’t matter.  I expect Tyler Wilson will get a lot of playing time and do just as well as Mallett.

Don’t sleep on the Vandy secondary though.  DB Casey Hayward is tied for 1^st in the nation in INTs (5).  I could see Vandy creating some turnovers there…but not enough to win…on the road.

THE PICK: Arkansas 35, Vanderbilt 14